College Basketball Game of the Day, Feb. 11: Arizona vs. Kansas State

The Super Bowl has passed, and we are deep into the college basketball grind toward March Madness. Big Tuesday offers us a ton of opportunities to get to the window, but there is one game that is especially advantageous. 

In this breakdown, I will highlight the game itself and all aspects of this matchup. This will be a weekly piece-and it will add to our already-robust niche sports content. Let’s dive into this late-night Big 12 matchup.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats

(Arizona -3.5, O/U 150.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

It’s a battle for Wildcats supremacy that takes place in Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kan., aka The Octagon of Doom. Arizona comes to town with a 17-6 record and has lost only one game since Dec. 18. Their transition to the Big-12 has been relatively smooth thus far, and they’ve done it with a solid mix of veterans and underclassmen. 

Arizona is led by the always-volatile Caleb Love, a terrifyingly exciting player who can single-handedly shoot his team back into any game while simultaneously having the ability to shoot them out of it. Other key players in the rotation include rising sophomore KJ Lewis, a devastating guard that is averaging 11.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.4 APG and 1.6 BPG over his last five games. He is a Sixth Man of the Year candidate in the Big-12, and I’m not convinced we have seen anything close to his best yet.

In the frontcourt, Arizona has a deep war chest of talent with Tobe Awaka, Carter Bryant and Henri Veesar presenting their opponents with a difficult challenge each game. It’s scary to think they could be even better in the painted area but lost talented sophomore Motiejus Krivas to a season-ending injury early in the year. That injury opened the door for Veesar to play more, and he has thrived with that opportunity. The 7-footer has a top-60 block rate and a combined rebounding rate of nearly 30%. He is another player that comes off the bench for the Wildcats, but he would be a starter for 90% of programs.

Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka has thrived in this system, and it’s been hardly noticeable that Zona lost Oumar Ballo to the Indiana Hoosiers before the year started. Awaka has the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country at 19.1% and has an elite combined rate of 47%. Tommy Lloyd’s group is one of the best rebounding teams in all of college basketball and very few teams can keep up with them on the glass.

The Wildcats of K-State are flying high after defeating the rival Jayhawks over the weekend 81-73. That was an impressive victory, one that obviously led to physical exhaustion but also a level of mental fatigue. I look to target these spots with a team coming off a big win like K-State just did and would consider this a very +EV spot to bet Arizona.

Coach Jerome Tang set the bar high in his first year with Kansas State, leading the Wildcats to an improbable Elite Eight run. It’s been a struggle since, and the puzzle pieces haven’t fit right in the last year of his tenure. That doesn’t mean that this is a lame duck team by any means, and they clearly have talent with million-dollar man Coleman Hawkins in the fold, but I don’t think it’s out of line to say he has been underwhelming in Manhattan. Michigan transfer Dug McDaniel is playing the best basketball of his career right now and put together an electric 15-point, 6-rebound, 11-assist stat line in the win over Kansas. 

Sharpshooters Max Jones and Brendan Hausen have been solid complimentary parts to the machine while David N’Guessan has scored in double figures in nine of his last eleven games since the calendar flipped to 2025. Clearly, this squad has the chops to compete, and they’ve been as good as anybody the past month of the season as evidenced by their five-game winning streak.

The key to this game for Arizona will be speeding up K-State. They are 47th in tempo per KenPom and were able to impose their will on Texas Tech in a way that kept the Red Raiders on their heels for most of the game. Prior to their matchup with Arizona, Tech had lost just four games and none by more than five points. Arizona dispatched them by nine and looked extremely dangerous while doing so, scoring 25 fast-break points.

K-State ranks high in several defensive metrics but have noticeably struggled when sped up by an opponent and are in the bottom half of programs in transition defense. If they are unable to get back on defense consistently they will find themselves in the exact same position that Texas Tech did.

Ultimately, I have Arizona projected to win by nearly seven points, and I think that the market has overreacted a bit to the recent victory by Kansas State. That means we have some room with this -3.5 line and are getting a favorable number at the current moment.

Best Bet

Arizona -3.5

Bonus Bet

Magoon Gwath (SDSU) Over 10.5 Points

(-107, Caesars)

Gwath has emerged as a go-to option for the Aztecs, and the rising 7-foot freshman has scored at least 14 points in four straight games. His double-digit streak should continue as they take on San Jose State on the road tonight. The Spartans are amongst the MWC’s worst in rebounding, 2-pt defense and interior defensive metrics. 

These two teams played a few weeks back with SDSU enjoying a 71-68 victory over the Spartans. In that game, Gwath rocked SJSU’s world with 24 points on 15 shot attempts. Not only did he dominate on the block, but he also hit three triples for good measure. Run, don’t walk to hit the over on this prop.