Best March Madness Bets Today (March 21)

Here are the best March Madness bets today for Friday, March 21, 2025. FTN is home to the tools, research, models, data, and experts you need to become a smarter sports bettor.

Here are FTN’s best CBB bets for today. To see more picks from our team, check out our bet tracker.

March Madness Best Bets Today (March 21, 2025)

Baylor +1 vs. Mississippi State 

-115, DraftKings

Baylor might be the lower seed in this 8 vs. 9 matchup, but they’re the better team in this spot, and FTN’s projection model backs them up. Our model gives Baylor a 56.36% probability to cover as a 1.5-point underdog, making them a strong value play. The Bears have a clear talent edge, headlined by potential top-five NBA Draft pick V.J. Edgecombe. The freshman phenom has been one of the most electric guards in the country, averaging 15 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game while playing elite perimeter defense. His ability to create his own shot and impact both ends of the floor makes him a matchup nightmare for a Mississippi State team that lacks a true defensive stopper on the wing. Pairing Edgecombe’s explosiveness with senior forward Norchad Omier—who is averaging 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds and has posted a double-double in nine straight games—gives Baylor the best two players on the court in this game.

Mississippi State has leaned heavily on Josh Hubbard’s scoring, but outside of him, their offensive production is unreliable. The Bulldogs have been solid defensively, but they’re facing a Baylor squad that has hit the game total over in 18 of their last 34 games, a sign of their efficient offense. Additionally, Mississippi State’s recent form is concerning, as they’ve allowed 73.4 PPG over their last 10 contests. With Edgecombe’s NBA-ready talent leading the way and Omier controlling the interior, Baylor has the tools to outmatch Mississippi State on both ends of the floor. Factor in the model’s backing, and the Bears are the clear pick to advance in this evenly matched showdown.

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Xavier +3.5 vs Illinois

-115, MGM

Xavier enters this matchup as a 3.5-point underdog against Illinois, but there are plenty of reasons to believe the Musketeers will cover—and potentially win outright. FTN’s projection model gives Xavier a 55.30% probability to cover, while Illinois’ chances to cover sit at just 44.70%. The model also projects this as a tight game, with Xavier scoring 80.9 points to Illinois’ 82.4, further reinforcing that the 11-seed is more than capable of keeping this close. Illinois may have the higher seed, but Xavier has been the hotter team, going 8-2 in its last 10 games while shooting a blistering 50.2% from the field during that stretch. The Musketeers also have a legitimate go-to scorer in Zach Freemantle, who is averaging 17.2 PPG on 52.4% shooting.

Beyond the numbers, Xavier has been a trendy upset pick, with FTN’s lead college basketball analyst Mike Randle selecting them to make a run all the way to the Final Four. The Musketeers have a significant advantage from beyond the arc, ranking second in the Big East in three-point shooting at 39.1%, while Illinois allows 8.4 made threes per game. In a game with a high total (160.5), Xavier’s ability to stretch the floor and knock down perimeter shots will be crucial. Illinois has struggled defensively, giving up 83.2 PPG over its last 10 games, and if Xavier continues its efficient scoring, they’ll have every opportunity to cover—and potentially pull off the upset.