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Course Fit Model Results: The 2024 Sony Open

Predictive Power: 7/10 (with the new and improved CF Model process, I may need to change the scale or everything will be a 7 or higher as long as we have data on the course)

Model Weights:

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These are pretty much all in line with their averages with the exception of approach play, which is slightly elevated. As I said on Pro v Pro, it’s very much a week where players with strong all-around games have an advantage over those with contrasting strengths and weaknesses.

The exact interpretation of these weights is difficult to nail down, but we can approximate it by saying something like “33.3% of a player’s probability of success this week is dependent on his iron skill”. An excellent example of the difference between predictive and descriptive analysis lies in the additional emphasis of off-the-tee play. Driving is as important as it is this week because driving the ball well is a necessary first step for those who hope to take advantage of their strong iron play. In other words, good driving can actually be predictive of good iron play at Waialae Country Club.

Course Fit Specialists: The 2024 Sony Open

To be a course fit specialist, a player has to project better on this course than he would on an average Tour course, relative to his peers. By this definition, there are no course fit specialists this week, which is a result of the balanced nature of the CF Model. All players have similar course fit expected strokes gained projections as their baseline expected strokes gained projections. However, there are a group of players who have well-rounded games with iron play as one of their biggest strengths:

Russell Henley
JT Poston (driving is the question mark)
Eric Cole (again, driving is the question mark)
Tyrrell Hatton
Chris Kirk

Honorable mention:

Byeong Hun An (if he can carry last week’s form with his irons and putter over to this week)