Bettings

Below are odds from my model for this week’s golf event, the Charles Schwab Challenge. You can use these to compare to a bookmaker’s odds straight up, or you could use them in your own model to make adjustments. These odds are meant to be a tool for you to use how you best see fit. Various data inputs are used in my model before the simulations are computed. 

If a golfer does not have odds, that implies that I either did not have enough data to confidently set a win probability or that golfer did not win any of the simulations I ran. 

Also take note that these numbers do not include any implied juice that you will find when referencing bookmaker’s odds, which is why the worst golfers in the field will have extremely high odds compared to the bookmakers. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.

Golfer Win% Wt Odds
Justin Thomas 8.60% 1061
Daniel Berger 7.40% 1253
Collin Morikawa 5.40% 1736
Corey Conners 4.50% 2112
Abraham Ancer 4.20% 2307
Will Zalatoris 4.00% 2391
Tony Finau 4.00% 2397
Jordan Spieth 4.00% 2415
Patrick Reed 3.40% 2883
Joaquin Niemann 3.30% 2890
Jason Kokrak 3.30% 2907
Scottie Scheffler 2.80% 3485
Charley Hoffman 2.60% 3814
Sungjae Im 2.10% 4673
Cameron Tringale 1.90% 5151
Emiliano Grillo 1.80% 5412
Brian Harman 1.50% 6431
Matt Wallace 1.50% 6451
Ryan Palmer 1.40% 6942
Sergio Garcia 1.40% 7242
Billy Horschel 1.30% 7445
Talor Gooch 1.20% 8336
Gary Woodland 1.10% 9084
Lee Westwood 1.10% 9110
Si Woo Kim 1.00% 9660
Kevin Streelman 1.00% 9686
Brendon Todd 0.90% 10853
Justin Rose 0.90% 11376
Matt Jones 0.90% 11623
Harold Varner III 0.80% 11696
Lucas Glover 0.80% 12652
Cameron Davis 0.80% 12845
Chris Kirk 0.70% 13430
Jhonattan Vegas 0.70% 13568
Branden Grace 0.70% 15228
Matt Kuchar 0.60% 15882
Sebastian Munoz 0.60% 15988
Tom Hoge 0.60% 17416
Ian Poulter 0.50% 19910
Mackenzie Hughes 0.50% 20994
Kevin Kisner 0.40% 22223
Patton Kizzire 0.40% 23151
Luke List 0.40% 23215
Joel Dahmen 0.40% 23755
James Hahn 0.40% 23774
Michael Thompson 0.40% 23995
Carlos Ortiz 0.40% 24621
Phil Mickelson 0.40% 25058
Kevin Na 0.40% 25199
Zach Johnson 0.40% 25718
Dylan Frittelli 0.40% 26852
Richy Werenski 0.40% 26921
Scott Stallings 0.40% 27164
Sepp Straka 0.40% 28254
Doug Ghim 0.30% 28491
Adam Hadwin 0.30% 28504
Brice Garnett 0.30% 30244
Brandt Snedeker 0.30% 32186
Matthew NeSmith 0.30% 32303
Maverick Mcnealy 0.30% 32363
Denny McCarthy 0.30% 37118
Troy Merritt 0.30% 37807
Doc Redman 0.20% 40405
Vincent Whaley 0.20% 40791
J.T. Poston 0.20% 41007
Russell Knox 0.20% 41136
Chase Seiffert 0.20% 41236
Harry Higgs 0.20% 43311
C.T. Pan 0.20% 44855
Danny Lee 0.20% 45013
Cameron Champ 0.20% 46808
Pat Perez 0.20% 47187
Mark Hubbard 0.20% 50851
Nick Taylor 0.20% 53332
Joseph Bramlett 0.20% 54177
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.20% 58912
Rory Sabbatini 0.20% 60702
Anirban Lahiri 0.20% 60935
Adam Schenk 0.20% 66173
Keith Mitchell 0.10% 71178
Will Gordon 0.10% 71938
Jason Dufner 0.10% 79695
Wyndham Clark 0.10% 80091
Scott Piercy 0.10% 84353
Kyle Stanley 0.10% 84919
Andrew Putnam 0.10% 86879
Adam Long 0.10% 90610
Patrick Rodgers 0.10% 90635
Camilo Villegas 0.10% 92566
Brandon Hagy 0.10% 101939
Tyler McCumber 0.10% 103174
Sam Ryder 0.10% 107758
Michael Gligic 0.10% 109474
Peter Malnati 0.10% 110295
Henrik Norlander 0.10% 117541
Byeong Hun An 0.10% 120222
Nate Lashley 0.10% 150229
Brian Stuard 0.10% 156596
Sahith Theegala 0.10% 165089
Henrik Stenson 0.10% 182438
Scott Brown 0.10% 185363
Cameron Percy 0.00% 220649
Hudson Swafford 0.00% 231945
Robert Streb 0.00% 251996
Robby Shelton 0.00% 253282
Austin Cook 0.00% 263160
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.00% 275075
Andrew Landry 0.00% 278689
Graeme McDowell 0.00% 314896
Kramer Hickok 0.00% 318168
Peter Uihlein 0.00% 428840
Xinjun Zhang 0.00% 441557
Jimmy Walker 0.00% 550850
Brian Gay 0.00% 737584
Sung Kang 0.00% 911422
D.A. Points 0.00% 14778542
John Augenstein 0.00% 20147039
Erik Compton #N/A #N/A
Michael Visacki #N/A #N/A
J. J. Henry #N/A #N/A
Keith Clearwater #N/A #N/A