
Below are odds from my model for this week’s golf event, the Rocket Mortgage Classic. You can use these to compare to a bookmaker’s odds straight up, or you could use them in your own model to make adjustments. These odds are meant to be a tool for you to use how you best see fit. Various data inputs are used in my model before the simulations are computed.
If a golfer does not have odds, that implies that I either did not have enough data to confidently set a win probability or that golfer did not win any of the simulations I ran.
Also take note that these numbers do not include any implied juice that you will find when referencing bookmaker’s odds, which is why the worst golfers in the field will have extremely high odds compared to the bookmakers. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
Golfer | Win% | Wt Odds |
Patrick Reed | 7.60% | 1213 |
Bryson DeChambeau | 6.20% | 1513 |
Webb Simpson | 5.40% | 1753 |
Jason Kokrak | 4.40% | 2169 |
Joaquin Niemann | 4.30% | 2238 |
Will Zalatoris | 4.20% | 2297 |
Hideki Matsuyama | 3.80% | 2537 |
Charley Hoffman | 3.40% | 2862 |
Si Woo Kim | 2.50% | 3822 |
Emiliano Grillo | 2.50% | 3830 |
Jason Day | 2.50% | 3831 |
Cameron Tringale | 2.50% | 3887 |
Keegan Bradley | 2.40% | 3984 |
Sungjae Im | 2.10% | 4726 |
Max Homa | 1.70% | 5695 |
Alex Noren | 1.60% | 6115 |
Bubba Watson | 1.40% | 7133 |
Sebastian Munoz | 1.30% | 7716 |
Lanto Griffin | 1.20% | 7919 |
Kevin Kisner | 1.20% | 8532 |
Brendon Todd | 1.10% | 8905 |
Harold Varner III | 1.10% | 8925 |
Matt Jones | 1.10% | 8940 |
Joel Dahmen | 1.10% | 9178 |
Gary Woodland | 1.10% | 9191 |
Chris Kirk | 1.10% | 9221 |
Patton Kizzire | 1.00% | 10346 |
Garrick Higgo | 0.90% | 10713 |
Rickie Fowler | 0.90% | 11176 |
Lucas Glover | 0.90% | 11560 |
Charles Howell III | 0.90% | 11571 |
Doc Redman | 0.80% | 11802 |
Cameron Davis | 0.80% | 12773 |
Doug Ghim | 0.80% | 12988 |
Troy Merritt | 0.70% | 13560 |
Mackenzie Hughes | 0.70% | 14853 |
Kyle Stanley | 0.70% | 14983 |
Matthew Wolff | 0.60% | 15397 |
Russell Knox | 0.60% | 15729 |
Erik van Rooyen | 0.60% | 16430 |
Pat Perez | 0.60% | 16450 |
Sepp Straka | 0.60% | 16871 |
Luke List | 0.60% | 17680 |
Phil Mickelson | 0.60% | 17845 |
Adam Hadwin | 0.60% | 18045 |
James Hahn | 0.50% | 18161 |
Scott Stallings | 0.50% | 18388 |
Tom Hoge | 0.50% | 18757 |
Chez Reavie | 0.50% | 18979 |
Maverick McNealy | 0.50% | 20122 |
Brice Garnett | 0.50% | 20343 |
Dylan Frittelli | 0.50% | 20432 |
Hank Lebioda | 0.50% | 20593 |
Vincent Whaley | 0.40% | 23081 |
Michael Thompson | 0.40% | 24404 |
Danny Willett | 0.40% | 25479 |
Ryan Armour | 0.40% | 25597 |
Brandt Snedeker | 0.40% | 26031 |
Martin Laird | 0.40% | 28103 |
Matthew NeSmith | 0.30% | 29915 |
Joseph Bramlett | 0.30% | 30140 |
Danny Lee | 0.30% | 30202 |
Mark Hubbard | 0.30% | 30537 |
Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.30% | 30755 |
Chase Seiffert | 0.30% | 32104 |
Richy Werenski | 0.30% | 33110 |
Denny McCarthy | 0.30% | 33322 |
Nick Taylor | 0.30% | 34892 |
Jason Dufner | 0.30% | 35320 |
Adam Long | 0.30% | 35627 |
Camilo Villegas | 0.30% | 35882 |
Bo Hoag | 0.30% | 35935 |
Tyler McCumber | 0.30% | 37859 |
Tom Lewis | 0.30% | 37936 |
Kramer Hickok | 0.20% | 40906 |
Henrik Norlander | 0.20% | 42311 |
Roger Sloan | 0.20% | 43212 |
Brian Stuard | 0.20% | 43962 |
Scott Piercy | 0.20% | 47705 |
Vaughn Taylor | 0.20% | 48230 |
Chesson Hadley | 0.20% | 48993 |
Byeong Hun An | 0.20% | 49236 |
Andrew Putnam | 0.20% | 49980 |
Adam Schenk | 0.20% | 50100 |
Cameron Champ | 0.20% | 51891 |
Patrick Rodgers | 0.20% | 55007 |
Robby Shelton | 0.20% | 55213 |
Kevin Chappell | 0.20% | 58682 |
Rafael Campos | 0.20% | 60557 |
Tyler Duncan | 0.20% | 62710 |
Nate Lashley | 0.20% | 62879 |
Peter Malnati | 0.20% | 63983 |
Harry Higgs | 0.20% | 64028 |
Anirban Lahiri | 0.10% | 66684 |
Brandon Hagy | 0.10% | 69689 |
Beau Hossler | 0.10% | 71253 |
Rory Sabbatini | 0.10% | 73121 |
Satoshi Kodaira | 0.10% | 78027 |
Bronson Burgoon | 0.10% | 78624 |
Robert Streb | 0.10% | 80096 |
Aaron Baddeley | 0.10% | 80677 |
Will Gordon | 0.10% | 95172 |
Andrew Landry | 0.10% | 103725 |
kris Ventura | 0.10% | 107311 |
Sam Ryder | 0.10% | 107659 |
Austin Cook | 0.10% | 115105 |
Chris Baker | 0.10% | 119689 |
Cameron Percy | 0.10% | 119768 |
Scott Brown | 0.10% | 129369 |
Scott Harrington | 0.10% | 130592 |
Ryan Brehm | 0.10% | 134406 |
Mark Anderson | 0.10% | 136180 |
Michael Gligic | 0.10% | 139637 |
Luke Donald | 0.10% | 140220 |
J.B. Holmes | 0.10% | 158290 |
J.J. Spaun | 0.10% | 177385 |
Ben Taylor | 0.10% | 188580 |
Rob Oppenheim | 0.00% | 201792 |
Jimmy Walker | 0.00% | 201934 |
Ted Potter, Jr. | 0.00% | 202867 |
David Hearn | 0.00% | 240701 |
Fabian Gomez | 0.00% | 272495 |
Kevin Tway | 0.00% | 324810 |
Sean O'Hair | 0.00% | 330756 |
D.J. Trahan | 0.00% | 364814 |
Rhein Gibson | 0.00% | 371804 |
K.J. Choi | 0.00% | 374008 |
Sebastian Cappelen | 0.00% | 422122 |
Sung Kang | 0.00% | 436162 |
Nelson Ledesma | 0.00% | 539325 |
William McGirt | 0.00% | 540602 |
Grayson Murray | 0.00% | 580309 |
Bo Van Pelt | 0.00% | 595915 |
Brian Gay | 0.00% | 899502 |
Michael Gellerman | 0.00% | 1324942 |
Nick Watney | 0.00% | 2147491 |
Jim Knous | 0.00% | 2250943 |
Hunter Mahan | 0.00% | 7837891 |
Michael Kim | 0.00% | 13657102 |
Kevin Stadler | 0.00% | 20159358 |
Matt Every | 0.00% | 37838575 |
Martin Trainer | 0.00% | 71333237 |
Curtis Thompson | #N/A | #N/A |
Harrison Frazar | #N/A | #N/A |
Jonas Blixt | #N/A | #N/A |