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With the PGA Tour taking a week off (what an offseason) we will shift our focus to the European Tour which is hosting its premier non-co-sanctioned event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth Golf Club.

Wentworth has been the home for this event since 1984, and prior has hosted a Ryder Cup and World Match Play tournaments. It is quite a historic course in England, laid out as a par 72 and close to 7,300 yards. It is great viewing on the London countryside, looking as pure from tee to green as Augusta. A few holes always catch the eye, especially as the golfers are coming home with back-to-back Par 5s for 17 and 18. Golfers will have to navigate a stream that splits vertically up 18 and cuts across the front of the green, making for some drama come Sunday.

Scoring varies greatly year to year, but recently we’ve been seeing the winners push -20, while -11 and -9 won just four and five years ago (also played in different times of the year).

I would expect the winner to be closer to -20 this week than -10, but that’s just an educated guess.

Overall, the course often demands supreme iron play more than off the tee prowess and typically we see a well-known name and talent taking home the trophy. Golfers will need to keep the ball in the fairway as much as possible, with proper angles helping into the green and avoiding some of the most penal rough the tour will see.

Group D Winner

Branden Grace

+250 (vs Wiesberger, Stenson, F. Molinari) FanDuel

I was close to market on Wiesberger/Molinari, but I do favor Grace more, and mainly due to my model not buying in as much on Stenson’s recent form. Obviously, anything can happen over a 72-hole time frame and Stenson has found some game again with his irons, averaging close to 0.73 strokes/round over the last 10 weeks. The downside for him is that he’s still been atrocious OTT during that time frame. Although the distance isn’t necessary to excel at Wentworth, I don’t think he’s going to survive losing more than 0.5 per round driving. Grace has also struggled OTT but I still believe the market is too high on Stenson and not giving Grace enough credit for how he’s been playing. He’s had success at Wentworth in the past, typically outperforming expectations, and I view this as more of a three-man race; sorry, Henrik. This will be the true test to see what kind of form Stenson has found and if it’s retainable and not simply fleeting in weaker European fields.

Top 40

Ian Poulter

-160, FanDuel

I did bet on Poulter to win this event as well but this wager is better value. While it’s true Poulter has never had sustained success at Wentworth it does seem like a course that should suit his game with his lack of distance, yet importance on accuracy. Couple that with his long-term and recent form, I believe he’s being overlooked. The market doesn’t like the fact that the form relies on a lot of short game – welcome to Poulter’s career! He has shown, dating back to the start of strokes gained data, his short game is above average and consistent. His iron play, although not world-beating, has been consistent and much improved his last three outings on the PGA Tour, gaining close to 0.62 strokes per round. Although this field isn’t weak, it does fall off once we go back to the top 30 some golfers, a group that Poulter is securely in. I believe his play warrants him to be inside the top 5 golfers in this field and make his top 20 number closer to -160 than his top 40 number.

For the rest of my picks, please check out my picks page on FTN Bets and click the “futures” tab for other BMW PGA Championship picks.

Also, be sure to join the discord channel where I also do my best to notify users of any new picks being posted so we can beat the line moves!