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Betting Picks

Course Fit Model

First, a brief summary of the Course Fit Model for the Houston Open, from my Course Fit article for FTNDaily:

“Every week, there’s a mad dash across the industry to try to figure out who best fits the course – you’ll hear everything from course history citations to quotes like “It’s a bomber’s paradise.” But what if we could actually mathematically measure which players are the best fits? We can.”

In other words, there’s no need for speculation of which skills will translate into success at a given course when we can measure it directly.

This week we have a course that blasts the predictive powers of both aspects of driving at the expense of iron play. Remember — the more unique the course fit model, the larger the potential edge… use promo code BLICK for 20% off to gain access if you haven’t already.

Odds Shopping

As is always the case, the low hanging fruit of the PGA betting world is odds shopping through the use of our prop shop. The differences in odds from one book to the next are often larger in PGA than you’ll ever see in leagues like the NBA or NFL. Simply shopping for the best odds can turn a losing bettor into a profitable bettor in PGA. This week, the largest, or at least most important, discrepancies I’ve found are:

Taylor Montgomery (27-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook, as low as 20-1 elsewhere)

Keith Mitchell (66-1 at BetMGM, as low as 50-1 elsewhere)

Those are both significant, but nothing compares to the spread for this last guy — I’ve never seen anything like it:

Gary Woodland (125-1 at BetMGM, as low as 65-1 elsewhere)

Absolute insanity. I’m jumping on the 125-1 without hesitation.

Course Fit Model

Outright Odds

Odds Shopping