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Betting Picks

Course Fit Model results: The 2023 Memorial Tournament

Predictive Power: 10/10

Hello, 10/10! This is just the second 10/10 of the year, with TPC Sawgrass being the other. There are so many layers to this course fit model, but the main takeaway is that it’s strong enough to paint a clear picture of what we’re looking for. Let’s start off the tee.

Distance is less predictive than usual, with a corresponding emphasis on accuracy. This is a key point – it is extremely likely that this means distance is not helpful in the absence of accuracy, but can be a difference maker for those who have the best of both worlds (like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, etc).

The calling card of this CF Model is the enormous weight on around-the-green play. Past champions and runners up like Matt Wallace, David Lingmerth, Matt Kuchar, and Hideki Matsuyama show that short games can carry a player here far more than at nearly any other golf course in the world.

Lastly, iron play as a whole is only as predictive as it typically is, even this aspect has a uniqueness to it. Virtually all of the signal is from mid-iron play, 150-200 yards. This will play a key role in determining our course fit specialists.

Course fit specialists for the 2023 Memorial Tournament

The priority list for course fit specialists this week looks like so:

Strong short game

Strong mid-irons

Accurate off the tee

Long off the tee

Solid putter

Here’s a glance at the best mid-iron players in the field at The Memorial:

The first column is a weighted average of the player’s mid-iron performance over the last 24 months, 12 months, and in 2023 only.

By the way, if you haven’t yet seen, our birdie rate over expectation metric is back and better than ever! You can find the data here – it will be updated immediately after the course fit projections.

It’s been an excellent year so far at FTNDaily and FTNBets, and it’s only going to get better. I believe we’ve found the perfect balance of DFS, outright betting and PrizePicks play. Don’t miss out on any of it! If you’re a subscriber at one but not the other, use promo code PRO for 20% off.