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The Masters is all about finding the right combination of form, course fit, and value. Our golf model simulates every round 10,000 times to pinpoint the sharpest betting edges—here are our favorite outright bets for Augusta National, backed by predictive data and advanced player stats.

Collin Morikawa to Win (+1600, DraftKings)

Morikawa enters Augusta in elite form, but oddsmakers haven’t fully caught up. His +1600 price trails Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, despite comparable win equity in our model—he wins 7.7% of simulations, just behind Scheffler’s 12.4% and neck-and-neck with Rory. At these odds, he’s offering better value than either.

Morikawa ranks in the top five in our projected Strokes Gained (SG) and thrives in the kind of conditions Augusta rewards. His baseline performance is +2.36 SG, and he excels in key buckets like Exposed OTT, Fast Greens, and Long Courses. That elite iron play paired with improved putting makes him a real threat to capture his third career major.

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Shane Lowry to Win (+4500, DraftKings)

Lowry’s odds are simply mispriced. Our model gives him a 4.4% chance to win—equal to Xander Schauffele and better than Justin Thomas or Hideki Matsuyama—but his odds are +4500 on DraftKings (with +3500 being the next best price in the market). That discrepancy makes this one of the best outright values on the board.

Lowry grades out as one of the strongest course fits in the field. His baseline SG of +1.62 jumps to +2.10 in Windy conditions and +2.16 on Fast Greens, both key at Augusta. He’s gained strokes in every major stat category and already has a major title under his belt. If his putter cooperates, he’s live to win.

Keegan Bradley to Win (+11000, FanDuel)

Longshot bettors, take note. Keegan Bradley is far from a name-brand Masters pick, but he quietly sits with a 1.7% win probability in our model—ranking higher than Cam Smith, Bryson DeChambeau, and even Brooks Koepka. At +11000 on FanDuel, he’s vastly underpriced.

Bradley’s game profiles well for Augusta. His total baseline SG is +1.26, and he grades out +2.05 on Firm & Fast courses and +1.86 in Windy settings. He’s gained strokes on Approach and ranks above average in Putting and Around the Green, two key differentiators at this course. This is exactly the kind of data-backed longshot worth a flier.