Bettings

Pick No. 1: Rams vs. Bills Over 49.5 Points

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bills rank third in offensive weighted DVOA and the Rams are ninth, but of course that includes some games without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Rams also run their offense at a fast pace, which encourages scoring. And Josh Allen under a roof? I’ll take some of that.

Pick No. 2: Jaguars +3.5 at Titans

(-110, BetMGM)

The Jaguars are a much worse team with Mac Jones at quarterback, but the Titans are 29th in weighted DVOA this year. The Titans are 10th on defense, but defense is less predictive than offense. The Jaguars can keep this close and even win.

Pick No. 3: Chargers +4 at Chiefs

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Right now, the Chargers have a higher DVOA and weighted DVOA than the Chiefs. And does it feel like the Chiefs will ever get a big win? Count on the Chargers to hang close even if the Chiefs pull it off yet again.

Pick No. 4: Cardinals -2.5 vs. Seahawks

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I’m going with DVOA in this ultra-important NFC West battle, even if the Seahawks just beat the Cardinals a couple weeks ago. Cardinals are seventh in DVOA and Seahawks only 18th, with a particularly big gap on offense.

Pick No. 5: Giants vs. Saints Over 41 Points

(-110, BetMGM)

I know, the Giants offense is terrible, but the Saints offense is better than you might think (18th in weighted offensive DVOA) and this number is very low. Weather forecast is for a high of 44 with a slight chance of rain, so it shouldn’t be an issue.