MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
While we are now in the midst of the summer season, the NFL has already brought an enhanced focus of content for the upcoming season. Articles, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the preseason, and best ball content is flowing like water. Sportsbooks have posted a plethora of future NFL bets such as player props and conference champions.
Over the next week, I’ll finish providing NFL betting content for each NFL division. I’ll cover key divisional storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my favorite bet to win each division. I started with the AFC East and NFC East in our first week, backing the Jets to end a 22-year drought as divisional champions and the Eagles to reclaim the top spot over the Cowboys. I then outlined why the Steelers (+700) are worth backing as the biggest long shot in the AFC North and how the Packers (+210) will stop the Lions from repeating in the NFC North. Last week, I picked the favorite Texans to win the AFC South and the Carolina Panthers to shock the world and win the NFC South. We started the last week of our divisional preview series with the AFC West, where I project the Chargers to end the eight-year reign of the Chiefs. Today, we finish it with the NFC West preview.
A different team has won the NFC West in three of the past four seasons, with the 49ers sitting as the two-time defending champion. This divisional champion always boasts a strong record, as the winner has finished with at least 12 wins in each of those five seasons. Seattle has been the most consistent champion, winning nine titles since 2002, but San Francisco has gone the deepest in the playoffs, with two Super Bowl trips since 2019. Per Sports Odds History, we see the eventual divisional winner has usually maintained fairly low odds with one notable exception.
| Year | Team | Record | Odds |
| 2002 | San Francisco 49ers | 10-6 | +220 |
| 2003 | Los Angeles Rams | 12-4 | -110 |
| 2004 | Seattle Seahawks | 9-7 | +110 |
| 2005 | Seattle Seahawks | 13-3 | -110 |
| 2006 | Seattle Seahawks | 9-7 | -225 |
| 2007 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 | +130 |
| 2008 | Arizona Cardinals | 9-7 | +220 |
| 2009 | Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | +145 |
| 2010 | Seattle Seahawks | 7-9 | +325 |
| 2011 | San Francisco 49ers | 13-3 | +220 |
| 2012 | San Francisco 49ers | 11-4-1 | -250 |
| 2013 | Seattle Seahawks | 13-3 | +110 |
| 2014 | Seattle Seahawks | 12-4 | -150 |
| 2015 | Arizona Cardinals | 13-3 | +550 |
| 2016 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-5-1 | -120 |
| 2017 | Los Angeles Rams | 11-5 | +1500 |
| 2018 | Los Angeles Rams | 13-3 | -200 |
| 2019 | San Francisco 49ers | 13-3 | +400 |
| 2020 | Seattle Seahawks | 12-4 | +220 |
| 2021 | Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | +190 |
| 2022 | San Francisco 49ers | 13-4 | +160 |
| 2023 | San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | -185 |
Currently, the 49ers (-195) are the dominant betting favorite, with the Rams (+330) still lurking. The longshots are the Seahawks (+700) and the Cardinals (+1300), who have the third-longest divisional odds of any team from these previews. Is it just a fait accompli for San Francisco to win the division again? Can Sean McVay find a way to reverse his recent 2-9 regular-season struggles against the 49ers? Will Seattle surprise in the first season of head coach Mike Macdonald? Can the Cardinals cash this season’s worst to first divisional title?
Here’s my betting breakdown of the NFC West.
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +1300)
There is definitely betting “intrigue” on the Cardinals here. Kyler Murray is fully healthy, which automatically makes Arizona much more competitive. As Bo Brack pointed out in our NFL Team Preview Series, Murray is entering his first true season with the new coaching regime, which includes doing more under center. Arizona suffered through a brutal stretch to end the 2023 season but were just a Matt Prater missed field goal away from going 4-4 when Murray returned, which included the Steelers, Seahawks and Eagles.
Arizona added a dynamic rusher in Trey Benson to the consistent James Conner, providing depth and versatility to an underrated rushing attack. I expect a huge improvement from the Cardinals defense in Year 2 of head coach Jonathan Gannon, who came to Arizona with a lengthy defensive coaching background. The Cardinals changed out almost half of their defensive personnel, adding Darius Robinson from Missouri in the first round of the draft. That would be a huge boost to a defense that only notched one sack over the final six weeks of the season, with that being a step out-of-bounds by former Chicago quarterback Justin Fields in Week 16.
Do I think the Cardinals win the AFC West? No, but at +1300 with a healthy Murray and a dynamic Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver, I couldn’t fault anymore for a sprinkle, especially with the sixth-easiest nonconference strength of schedule per Vegas projected win totals.
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +700)
I’m bearish on the Seahawks with massive changes in the coaching staff. Seattle has a new head coach in Mike Macdonald, a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb and a new defensive coordinator in Aden Durde. That is simply too much change in a division that always produces a legit Super Bowl contender.
Seattle’s strength of schedule is average per Vegas projected opponent win totals, but there are massive concerns about the upside of this offense. Geno Smith is an average quarterback that only had one quality season (2022) in his 10-year NFL career. The wide receiver core is strong, but Tyler Lockett turns 32 in September. The real problem is again their offensive line, which is again ranked in the bottom third of the league.
Seattle will always be competitive but have lost five straight matchups (including the playoffs) to San Francisco and have lost five of their last seven matchups with the Rams (including playoffs). This is a hard pass on the AFC West title. The Cardinals and Seahawks are both unlikely to win the NFC West title, but the odds make Arizona a much more attractive selection.
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +330)
The Rams were one of the surprise teams last season and bring an 8.5-game win total to this season, juiced to the over. The big adjustment will be on defense, after the retirement of future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald. However, the Rams have done a superb job of maximizing their limited draft picks, getting standout rookie seasons from DT Kobie Turner and LB Byron Young. Los Angeles also bolstered their pass defense with the signing of cornerbacks Darious Williams (Jacksonville) and Tre’Davious White (Buffalo).
As long as the Rams stay healthy, their elite offense will keep them in the battle for the AFC West title. Kyren Williams returns as the starting running back after an incredible sophomore season, and the addition of Michigan rookie Blake Corum adds depth and explosiveness. Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should be among the league’s most productive wideouts, with Demarcus Robinson an effective third option. Tight end Colby Parkinson is an elite run-blocker and provides critical depth until the return of Tyler Higbee from a torn ACL and MCL.
If the 49ers struggle, the Rams are in the perfect position to capitalize. At +330 with their secondary upgrades, I love grabbing McVay and this elite offensive attack.
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: -195)
San Francisco is a great team and one of the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX this season, but I refuse to bet a team at -195 to win the division.
The 49ers win total is set at 11.5, juiced to the under (-125). Despite their elite talent, there are concerns about their season. It has historically been a poor bet to back the over on a team with double-digit projected win total. San Francisco is also at a huge rest disadvantage when compared to their opponents, the worst in history. They will likely be favored in every game, but the 49ers have nonconference road matchups at Buffalo, at Green Bay and at Miami, with difficult home battles with Detroit, Dallas and Kansas City.
San Francisco’s offense is always incredibly efficient, but I have concerns about their offensive line. Our Dan Fornek ranks the 49ers front five at a mediocre 14th overall, with extremely fortunate health last season. Despite a three-game projected win total advantage, I can’t back the 49ers at this number.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers win this division on the tiebreaker with the Rams, but I’m still picking San Francisco because of their defensive advantage over Los Angeles. They have the best roster in the NFC with an elite head coach, which should be enough to squeeze out their third straight divisional crown.
As long as the Rams stay healthy on offense, they will make the playoffs. Los Angeles was one point away from beating Detroit on the road, with Stafford and Nacua roasting the Lions secondary. With just a slight secondary improvement with Williams and White, this Rams team is again a dangerous playoff matchup for anyone.
