NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, which means we finally have prices for the Rookie of the Year market. Below, I’m going to be focusing on the offensive side of the ball, finding the best odds for a few candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year that stand out.
(+210, FanDuel Sportsbook)
As the No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams has the shortest odds of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and for good reason. Since stepping onto the field in relief of Spencer Rattler as a freshman at Oklahoma, Williams has been phenomenal, winning over the starting job to close out the season, throwing for 1,912 yards and 21 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, posting a 64.5% completion rate through 11 games. After transferring to USC before the 2022 season, Williams made a statement in his first full season as a starter, totaling 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns through the air, completing 66.6% of his passes on 500 dropbacks. He was recognized as the best player in college football, beating out Max Duggan and 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud for the Heisman Trophy.
Williams’ pro-style game should transition well into the NFL, surrounded by arguably the best supporting cast ever by a first-year quarterback, featuring a receiving core of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze. With that said, there isn’t much value in backing Williams for Offensive Rookie of The Year, with odds ranging between +175 to +210. My preferred approach would be to wait for the start of the season and hope for a better price once the hype dies down.
(+600, DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook)
The term generational gets thrown out a lot, but Marvin Harrison Jr. has been just that, topping 1,200 receiving yards and scoring 14 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and standing out as the clear alpha for Buckeyes despite sharing the field with multiple first-round wide receivers who have already demonstrated success at the next level. In his first year without C.J. Stroud this past season, Harrison was unphased by the subpar play under center, winning the 2023 Biletnikoff Award, recognized as the best college wide receiver in the nation. Even as a rookie, Harrison should immediately step in as the No. 1 target for Kyler Murray, playing for a Cardinals team that doesn’t have a single pass catcher who has eclipsed 825 receiving yards in a single season. At +600, Harrison’s current Offensive Rookie of The Year still has value due to the presence of Williams directly ahead.
(+1000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
J.J. McCarthy’s stock took a slight hit on draft day, falling to 10th overall, QB4 in the class. However, McCarthy’s landing spot rivals Caleb Williams’ as one of the best situations for a first-year starting signal caller, featuring a supporting cast headlined by the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, last year’s first-round selection Jordan Addison and two-time pro bowler T.J. Hockenson. Unlike Williams, McCarthy also has a proven head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who was pushing to lead the Vikings to back-to-back divisional titles before losing Kirk Cousins midseason. McCarthy may not be as developed as Cousins in Year 1, but he should be an upgrade over Nick Mullens, who threw for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in all three games he completed as the starter. Despite never attempting more than 332 passes in a single season in college, McCarthy has been a winner his entire career, leading the Wolverines to the national title in 2023, finally getting the opportunity to showcase himself at the next level.
