MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The Run for the Roses is here. Saturday, we’ll have the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is always a tricky race to bet, as you not only have very young horses, but you also have a massive 20 horses on the track. That may seem intimidating, but I have something that can potentially help you pinpoint who to place your bets on in the Debry.
Years ago, I came across a forum post from a poster called MoneylineExpress that outlined a 10-step process that whittled down the 20-horse field to just a few viable contenders. Horse racing systems are a dime a dozen and usually don’t work. But to my surprise, this process nailed Animal Kingdom as one of the three horses who could win the 2011 Kentucky Derby. A $2 win bet on Animal Kingdom paid $43.80, so needless to say, the process always stuck out to me.
Over the years, I’ve used this process to identify my Derby win bets. While the winners haven’t always been longer shots like Animal Kingdom, the process has worked in the Running of the Roses nine of the last 10 times. The one exception came in 2019, when Country House won as a 65-1 longshot in the slop thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security. The process isn’t foolproof, but it’s pretty darn good. So, let’s dive into the 10 steps. First, here’s a look at the field with the trainer and jockey in parentheses along with their opening line odds:
1 Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez) 20-1
2 Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione) 3-1
3 Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20-1
4 Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat) 8-1
5 Catalytic (Saffie Joseph Jr., José Ortiz) 30-1
6 Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen) 20-1
7 Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis) 20-1
8 Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux) 10-1
10 T O Password (Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura) 30-1
11 Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai) 10-1
12 Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario) 20-1
13 West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte, Jesús Castañón) 50-1
14 Endlessly (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli) 30-1
15 Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 30-1
16 Grand Mo the First (Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo) 50-1
17 Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez) 5-2
18 Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu) 20-1
19 Resilience (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado) 20-1
20 Society Man (Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori) 50-1
21 Epic Ride (John Ennis, Adam Beschizza) 30-1
Remove all horses who did not run at least 1 1/8 mile in their last prep race. Horses who have not run at least this distance will have a tough time with the 1 1/4-mile distance in the Derby. Every winner for the last 30 years has run at least 1 1/8 mile in their final prep race before the Derby.
Eliminate:
15 Domestic Product – last race was the Tampa Derby at 1 1/16.
Remove all horses who did not finish at least fourth-or-better in its final prep race. No horse has won the race with a finish worse than fourth in its last prep race going back to 1962. The 2019 winner Country House finished third in its final prep race before the Derby, but often the winner is coming off a win in its final prep race.
Eliminate:
None (but the 22 horse Mugatu would be eliminated if another scratch happens. It finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes)
Remove all horses who did not race at age 2. All the horses in the Kentucky Derby are 3 years old. While that may seem quite young, it’s extremely rare to see a horse step onto the track at 3 and compete at this level.
Eliminate:
8 Just a Touch – First race was Jan. 27, 2024.
10 T O Password – First race was Jan. 6, 2024.
Remove all horses who were not first or second with a furlong to go in either of their last two starts before the Derby. Sure, Giacomo won the roses from back in sixth with a furlong to go in 2005, but those sorts of comebacks are rare in the Derby. The winner will almost always be up front with a furlong to go.
Eliminate:
2 Sierra Leone – Was fourth with a furlong to go both of its last two races. This horse is the second favorite on the board, but its closing style doesn’t work well for Derby success.
4 Catching Freedom — Was fourth and third with a furlong to go in last two races.
6 Just Steel – Was third and seventh with a furlong to go in last two races.
7 Honor Marie – Was sixth and eighth with a furlong to go in last two races.
16 Grand Mo the First – Was third and fourth with a furlong to go in last two races.
1 Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez) 20-1
3 Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20-1
5 Catalytic (Saffie Joseph Jr., José Ortiz) 30-1
11 Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai) 10-1
12 Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario) 20-1
13 West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte, Jesús Castañón) 50-1
14 Endlessly (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli) 30-1
17 Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez) 5-2
18 Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu) 20-1
19 Resilience (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado) 20-1
20 Society Man (Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori) 50-1
21 Epic Ride (John Ennis, Adam Beschizza) 30-1
The field is now whittled down to 12 horses. From here we will no longer be eliminating any horses. Instead, we’re going to award a point to the horses for each of criteria box they check.
Give a point to any horse who won a race of at least one mile at two years old.
Point to:
1 Dornoch, 11 Forever Young, 12 Track Phantom, 13 West Saratoga, 14 Endlessly, 17 Fierceness, 18 Stronghold
Give a point to any horse who ran one of its two fastest Beyer speed figures in its last race.
Point to:
5 Catalytic, 11 Forever Young, 12 Track Phantom, 13 West Saratoga, 14 Endlessly, 17 Fierceness, 18 Stronghold, 19 Resilience, 20 Society Man, 21 Epic Ride
Give a point to any horse who ran in a graded stakes as a 3-year-old before April.
Point to:
1 Dornoch, 3 Mystik Dan, 5 Catalytic, 11 Forever Young, 12 Track Phantom, 13 West Saratoga, 14 Endlessly, 17 Fierceness, 18 Stronghold, 19 Resilience, 20 Society Man
Give a point to any horse who won a graded stakes race.
Point to:
1 Dornoch, 3 Mystik Dan, 11 Forever Young, 12 Track Phantom, 13 West Saratoga, 14 Endlessly, 17 Fierceness, 18 Stronghold, 19 Resilience
Give a point to any horse whose finish in each of its last two races was no worse than its place with one furlong to go in the race.
Point to:
1 Dornoch, 3 Mystik Dan, 5 Catalytic, 11 Forever Young, 14 Endlessly, 18 Stronghold, 20 Society Man
Forever Young 5
Endlessly 5
Stronghold 5
Fierceness 4
Track Phantom 4
Dornoch 4
West Saratoga 4
Mystik Dan 3
Resilience 3
Society Man 3
Catalytic 2
Epic Ride 1
Winning horses nearly always have four or five points from the previous five steps. We can toss Mystik Dan, Resilience, Society Man, Catalytic and Epic Ride from the pool. In our final step, we’re going to look at the Beyer speed figures for this group. To eliminate any one-hit wonders, we’re going to take the second-highest Beyer figure for each of the seven remaining horses.
Fierceness 105
Track Phantom 94
Forever Young 93
Dornoch 90
Stronghold 89
Endlessly 87
West Saratoga 81
While Beyer numbers are far from a perfect metric, we typically don’t see a horse within five points of the top speed take the roses. That makes things tricky because the top horse, Fierceness, is 11 points higher than the second horse on the board. It would seem like this is Fierceness’ race to lose, but the post draw is noteworthy.
To make matters worse, Fierceness fired its two 100-plus Beyer figures from the front. It’s going to be very difficult to get to the front early from that far outside. That’s what happened to Fierceness in the Holy Bull when it broke from the 7. It had to stalk, briefly took the lead on the back turn, and faded down the stretch. To be fair, Fierceness did get to the lead from the 10 post in the Florida Derby. However, there was very little speed in that race. The Derby will be very different. As such, it’s wise to include the top five in our key pool of horses.
17 Fierceness
12 Track Phantom
11 Forever Young
1 Dornoch
18 Stronghold
If Fierceness can get to the front, no other horse has a chance. But that post draw is tricky, so we can try to beat it with any of the other four. Track Phantom is interesting, but the fact that it was passed over the final furlong while in the lead in each of its last two races doesn’t bode well for Derby success. Forever Young presents another set of problems as a shipper that ran its last two races in the Middle East. International shippers have not won the Derby since 1971. Likewise, Dornoch doesn’t have history in its corner. No horse has won out of the No. 1 post since 1986. These three horses are probably better used in exotic wagers. As for Stronghold, the 18 isn’t an optimal post, but it did win as a stalker in each of its last two races. This is our dark horse candidate.
We also should consider the jockeys and trainers for each horse. John Velazquez is on the mount for Fierceness. He’s one of the most successful jocks in Derby history with three wins (2011, 2017. 2020). Fierceness is trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher, who is one of the most successful trainers in the history of the sport. Track Phantom also has an impressive trainer/jockey combo of Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. Asmussen has never won the Derby, but does have two Preakness wins (2007, 2009) and a Belmont (2016). He’s also the winningest trainer of all time. As for Rosario, he took the roses in the 2013 Derby aboard Orb.
The connections aren’t quite as impressive for Dornoch. Trainer Danny Gragan has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes and hasn’t had a horse in the Derby since 2019 – Tax, who finished 14th. Jockey Luis Saez, has also never won the Derby, though he did win the Belmont in 2021. Stronghold has two Derby debutants in trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Antonio Fresu. As for Forever Young, trainer Yoshito Yahagi is the only Japanese trainer to win a Breeders’ Cup race. Jockey Ryusei Sakai made his Derby debut last year aboard Coninuar.
We also should be prepared in case it rains Saturday. Track Phantom has experience in the slop at the Risen Star, where it posted a 94 Beyer figure. Likewise, Stronghold has a 442 Tomlinson wet rating (out of a possible 480), That’s the second highest in the field and suggests it will take well to the slop. We could also toss the 3, Mystik Dan, back into the mix if we get an off track. Meanwhile, Fierceness only ran in the slop once, but it didn’t go well.
There you have it. The process has given us five horses, but an off track would change our betting ticket. Let’s put together one for each weather scenario Here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget for a fast track:
$20 win bet on 17
$5 win bet on 18
$40 win and place bet on 17
$10 win and place bet on 18
If it’s an off track, we’ll pivot to these:
$10 win bet on 12, 18
$5 win bet on 3
$20 win and place bet on 12, 18
$10 win and place bet on 3
Now, I should say that the above process works for identifying candidates who can win the race, but it’s not an approach to use for exotics. Sure, we can use 5, 7 and 15 as our key horses, but simply boxing them up in exactas and trifectas isn’t an optimal approach. Here, we’ll need to sprinkle in horses who didn’t meet our criteria above because every year we see those horses hit the board. Here are the other horses I’ll be using in exotics:
Exactas – in addition the key horses, add the following:
1 Dornoch
11 Forever Young
12 Track Phantom
Trifectas – add these horses to the key horses and exacta horses:
2 Sierra Leone
3 Mystik Dan
4 Catching Freedom
6 Just Steel
7 Honor Marie
8 Just a Touch
19 Resilience
Here are some sample wagers based on the above picks:
$5 exacta box: 17, 18 ($10 total bet)
$2 exacta box: 1, 11, 12, 18 ($24 total bet)
$2 exacta: 17, 18 /1, 11, 12 ($12)
$2 exacta: 17, 18 /1, 11, 12 ($12)
$1 exacta: 1, 11, 12 /2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 19 ($21)
$1 trifecta: 17, 18/1, 2, 3, 7, 11, 12/ 1, 2, 3, 7, 11, 12 ($60)
$1 trifecta: 17/11, 12, 17 /1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 18, 19 ($24)
$1 trifecta: 5/1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 18, 19 /11, 12, 17 ($24)
