MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
The 156th running of the Belmont States takes place Saturday. There will be no Triple Crown winner this year, as Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan failed to win the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago. However, Mystik Dan is back and is the first Derby winner to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown since 2018 and the first non-Preakness winner to do so since Orb in 2013. In addition to Mystik Dan, we also have five horses who ran in either the Derby or Preakness, including Preakness winner Seize the Grey.
This field isn’t the most impressive we’ve seen, but there are plenty of opportunities for betting purposes. This is a race to go after exotics with exactas, trifectas, and even superfectas in play. Before we get to the betting picks, let’s break down the field.
Unlike my Derby article, which uses a process of elimination to narrow down the massive field, Belmont handicapping doesn’t take the same approach. However, there are some things to consider. In terms of running style, we could see any style win this race. Frontrunners have wired the field, some have stalked their way to victory, and closers have had big runs down the stretch to win the race.
One thing we have noticed is that horses that have run in the Preakness have not had success in the Belmont. We’ve seen only three Belmont winners from horses who ran in the Preakness over the last 20 years, and two of them were Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. That doesn’t bode well for Seize the Grey or Mystik Dan, who were in this year’s edition of the Preakness three weeks ago.
However, we have seen success from Todd Pletcher horses. The Hall of Fame trainer has produced four Belmont winners, including 2022 winner Mo Donegal. Pletcher has three horses in the field: Antiquarian, Protective and Mindframe.
With these trends in mind, let’s look at this year’s field.
1. Seize the Grey (8-1) – The Preakness winner romped on a sloppy track and wired the field. There is a good bit of pace in this field, so it isn’t likely Seize the Grey gets another easy trip in this race. Posted a career-best Beyer speed figured of 100 in the Preakness.
2. Resilience (10-1) – Ran well in the Kentucky Derby and was in the mix as the leaders made the turn for the homestretch, but ultimately faded and finished sixth. Has a top Beyer speed figure of 90.
3. Mystik Dan (5-1) – The Kentucky Derby winner ran well in the Preakness but ultimately couldn’t track down winner Seize the Grey and finished second by two-and-a-quarter lengths. This horse has the pace and should be able to handle the distance, though the history bodes poorly for horses coming out of the Preakness.
4. The Wine Steward (15-1) – A New York-bred horse who finished second in each of its last three races with 90-plus Beyer figures in all three. Race history suggests it could struggle at this distance.
5. Antiquarian (12-1) – One of the three Pletcher horses, with John Velazquez on the mount. The Peter Pan Stakes winner has a career-best Beyer figure of 92.
6. Dornoch (15-1) – Overmatched in the Kentucky Derby, Dornoch finished a distant 10th after breaking slow out of the gate and a poor trip. This horse wants to run up front and could push the pace in this race. We’ve seen plenty of horses wire the field. Dornoch is the best bet to do so this year.
7. Protective (20-1) – Yes, it’s a Pletcher horse, but Protective has yet to win in four career starts. It’s difficult to see that changing in a Triple Crown race.
8. Honor Marie (12-1) – Got into early trouble in the Derby and finished a distant eighth. The connections made the change to Florent Geroux, who did not hit the board in his two previous Belmont starts.
9. Sierra Leone (9-5) – A bat-out-of-hell closer, Sierre Leone nearly edge out Mystik Dan in the Derby, finishing second by a nose. Tyler Gaffalione was on the mount in that race, but the connections opted for Flavian Pratt in this race. This is the best horse in the field.
10. Mindframe (7-2) – The top Pletcher horse in the field is extremely lightly raced. Mindframe has run just two races, but both were excellent. He won both races posting Beyer figures of 103 and 97.
If you don’t want to bet exotics and prefer to stick to win bets, here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget:
$25 Budget
$20 win on 9
$5 win on 6
$100 Budget
$25 win, place, and show bets on 9
$12 win and place bet on 6
In terms of the exotics, we have a lot of angles at our disposal, but everything starts with the 2 and 7 horses as our keys. Here are some sample wagers based on my handicapping:
$5 exacta box: 6,9 ($10 total bet)
$5 exacta: 6,9 with 2,4 ($20)
$2 exacta: 6 with all ($18)
$2 trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with ALL ($32 total bet) – a $0.50 trifecta would be $8
$2 trifecta: 6,9 with ALL with 6,9 ($32 total bet)
$0.10 superfecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with ALL with ALL ($11.20 total bet)
