Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our NFL Draft wish list series continues with the NFC East, a division that has been dominated by the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys as of late. Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders and New York Giants are still looking for their franchise quarterbacks.
Perhaps this season.
(Check out the NFL Draft Wish List series: AFC East | AFC North | NFC North | AFC South | NFC South | AFC West | NFC West)
2024 NFL Draft Wish List: NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
- First pick: 1st round, 22nd overall
- Total first-rounders: 1
- Total selections: 8
After a second consecutive red-hot start to the season, the Eagles limped to a disappointing playoff exit in 2023. But this team still added a ton of talent during free agency and should still be viewed as one of the top teams in all of football, despite watching both Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox retire. As has been the case for a few years now, the Eagles have to add to their secondary, a unit that struggled heavily last year. Their top two defensive backs are Darius Slay, who is 33 years old, and James Bradberry, who is 31 and was awful last year. He allowed nine touchdowns in coverage, the most in football, as well as 12.4 yards per completion and 7.1 yards per target. And in man coverage specifically, Bradberry allowed seven touchdowns and 335 receiving yards, the most and fourth-most in the league, respectively. At 22nd overall, there are a few defensive backs that will be there for Philadelphia. Nate Wiggins from Clemson makes the most sense to me. He has a long frame with awesome athleticism (4.28 40-yard dash) but because Vic Fangio’s defense often deploy many light boxes, it is important to have solid run support from the secondary, which wasn’t exactly a strength of Wiggins. Unfortunately, it is unlikely Terrion Arnold makes it to the Eagles at 22nd but this is a pretty deep class. Philadelphia could go defensive back with one of their two second-rounders. If they do, keep an eye on Kamari Lassiter from Georgia, who isn’t as athletic but has good instincts and recognition, especially against the run.
Of course, we all know the Eagles got very little from the linebacker position last year. I’d be pretty surprised if they didn’t address the position in the third round, whether it is Junior Colson or Edgerrin Cooper. In the second round, though, the Eagles could be looking at Kingsley Suamataia, an incredibly athletic tackle from BYU. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he can learn from one of the best tackles on the planet in Lane Johnson, as well as an elite offensive line coach in Jeff Stoutland.
Finally, the Eagles should draft a wideout at some point during the draft. Yes, they have an elite duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but this team needs consistent production from the slot. And no, I don’t think that will come from Parris Campbell. I like the idea of Malachi Corley in Kellen Moore’s offense. Corley is electric after the catch, averaging nearly nine yards after the catch per reception. We should see an uptick in pre-snap motion from the Eagles this year, which Corley could be utilized in. Last year, Philadelphia used pre-snap motion just 22.8% of the time, the lowest rate in football. But with Moore as the OC last year, the Chargers used pre-snap motion at the league’s fifth-highest rate (55.7%). Moore has also liked to design reverses and jet sweeps to wideouts, which makes Corley a perfect fit.
Dallas Cowboys
- First pick: 1st round, 24th overall
- Total first-rounders: 1
- Total selections: 7
I’m honestly not sure there is a scenario where the Cowboys don’t draft an offensive lineman in the first round. They lost both Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz this offseason, and it sounds like Dallas’ plan is to keep Tyler Smith at guard. If that is the case, JC Latham or Tyler Guyton at tackle would be logical selections in the first round. Honestly, the only way I see Dallas not going offensive line in round one is if they either trade out or draft someone like Jer’Zhan Newton, though it seems unlikely after selecting defensive lineman Mazi Smith in the first round a season ago.
From a fantasy football perspective, the Cowboys are one of the top landing spots for a rookie running ack, so it is no surprise that I’d love to see the team draft Jonathon Brooks from Texas. Brooks carried the ball 187 times for 1,135 yards and 10 touchdowns in 11 games last year. And if it weren’t for an ACL tear, he’d be the unquestioned RB1 in this class. Brooks has good size with fantastic contact balance, though he often runs too upright at times. But the real appeal is how natural he is in the passing game. His hands are incredibly soft and in this Dallas offense, Brooks could be an impact fantasy contributor by the second half of his rookie season.
Washington Commanders
- First pick: 1st round, 2nd overall
- Total first-rounders: 1
- Total selections: 9
Quarterback will obviously be selected by Washington with the second overall pick, and unless they can magically find a way to reunite Caleb Williams with Kliff Kingsbury, it’ll come down to Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. Schematically, Daniels makes the most sense and all signs are pointing to him being the selection. We know Kingsbury’s offense has wanted to be a version of the Air Raid, which spreads defenses out by operating from 11 and 10 personnel, while taking shots down the field. Last season Daniels tossed 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions on deep passes at LSU, while his 1,347 yards on deep passes ranked fourth in the nation. This offense also wants to play uptempo and get the quarterback outside the pocket. If this is the landing spot for Daniels, the volume might be there right away in his rookie season. In 2019-2021 with the Cardinals, Kingsbury’s offenses ranked sixth in early down pass rate (56.5%). During that same span, Arizona was second in average seconds per snap (25.5) and easily first in no-huddle rate (35.5%).
The Commanders also have multiple selections in the second round where they can address the offensive line and secondary. In 2023, Washington posted the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate (10.3%), while Sam Howell was under pressure on nearly 40% of his dropbacks. Washington really needs a left tackle, which makes Jordan Mason someone I’d guess is on their draft board. He only played left tackle at Arizona and has a little more experience than someone like Kinglsey Suamataia.
If Washington looks to the secondary in the second round, it wouldn’t surprise me, especially with Dan Quinn now at head coach. Simply put, this secondary was a disaster last season, allowing 103.8 receiving yards per game to opposing top wideouts, the most in the league. They also allowed the highest passing touchdown rate in football (6.5%). Quinn likes to run a combination of man coverage and Cover-3, as Dallas utilized man coverage 37% of the time last year, the second-highest rate. Two players that stand out for Washington in Round 2 or later are TJ Tampa and Andru Phillips. Tampa has the size that Quinn looks from his defensive backs (6-foot-2, 190 pounds) and plays with plenty of physicality. Phillips is also physical but could project better in press man coverage.
New York Giants
- First pick: 1st round, 6th overall
- Total first-rounders: 1
- Total selections: 6
Assuming the Giants don’t find a way to move up in the draft, they will likely miss out on the top four quarterbacks in this class. Not ideal. That makes them a candidate to trade back or just take the best player on the board, which would be Malik Nabers or Joe Alt. The Giants have been looking for a true top wide receiver since the days of Odell Beckham and Nabers could be just that. The LSU product has elite short area change of direction with tremendous footwork. He is very difficult to tackle once the ball is in his hands, ranking fourth among all collegiate wide receivers in missed tackles forced (30). But if the Chargers, who lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, select him one spot ahead of the Giants, it’ll be interesting to see if they trade back. Yes, Joe Alt is there but the lone bright spot in this offensive line is Andrew Thomas, who also plays left tackle.
New York doesn’t have a ton of equity in this draft, but they still have plenty of holes in their roster. Offensive line, secondary, wide receiver and quarterback should all be on their radar. If Michael Penix or Bo Nix are available at 47th overall, the Giants should be interested, though that might be a very close call by the time the draft rolls around. Going back to the offensive line, this team needs help at guard so if Christian Haynes is on the board at 70th overall, the Giants shouldn’t hesitate.
