Texans Lead 2023 AGL Numbers with OL Injury Record

The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries last season included New England, Carolina, and Arizona.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Los Angeles Rams had the league’s lowest AGL after coming close to the highest the year before. Super Bowl teams Kansas City and San Francisco both ranked among the bottom six teams, while Cincinnati showed the limitations of the AGL formula: they ranked third in lowest AGL but of course their most substantial injury was to starting quarterback Joe Burrow.

Just as we did on our old website, I’ve continued to collect data from the NFL’s weekly injury reports (with the help of Zachary Binney from Emory University) and transformed it into adjusted games lost. We also have the data going backwards, covering the entire 21st century. Adjusted games lost doesn’t just add up total injuries. It accounts for both absent players and those playing at less than 100%, and it specifically measures injuries to expected starters and important situational players rather than little-used backups. As such, AGL estimates the impact of injuries on teams and provides a comparable total that often succinctly explains why teams improved or declined from one year to the next. 

There’s a good gap between the Houston Texans and the rest of the league last year, with over 30 AGL separating the Texans and the Patriots. The Texans had the most injuries on offense — again, over 30 AGL more than any other team — and the fifth-most injuries on defense. The biggest issue was a cascade of injuries on the offensive line. Two 2022 starters, Scott Quessenberry and Kenyon Green, missed the entire season. The Texans also got over 10 AGL apiece from offensive linemen Kendrick Green, Tytus Howard, Jarrett Patterson, and Juice Scruggs. Houston set a new record with 82.1 AGL on the offensive line, surpassing the previous record which the Los Angeles Rams set just a year ago.

Houston also had a good number of defensive back injuries (33.4 AGL) and wide receiver injuries (17.2 AGL). Defensive back injuries included Eric Murray, Jimmie Ward, Tavierre Thomas, and Derek Stingley. Wide receiver injuries were led by Noah Brown and Tank Dell. There was plenty of attention paid to C.J. Stroud‘s concussions, but he only counted for 2.3 AGL.

The record number of offensive line injuries in Houston is ironic considering one of the biggest stories of the year was a significant drop in injuries around the league. The average team’s AGL was 68.9, our lowest figure since 2013. It’s certainly possible that in compiling the numbers we missed marking some reserve players as “situational” or “new starters” which would increase the number a little more, but it’s very unlikely that would make up most of the difference between 2023 and the last few years. And we don’t think we missed any important players who spent the entire year on injured reserve. It looks like injury numbers were just down last year for unknown reasons. The average team’s AGL had been 79.3 in 2022 and 80.9 in 2021 (not including COVID absences).

Here we go with the numbers. Hopefully this isn’t confusing, but ranks go from best (1, fewest injuries) to worst (32, most injuries). That’s why the Texans are listed as No. 32 but they’re on top of the table.

The teams at the top of the league in AGL had the most significant increase from 2022 to 2023: Houston was up 88.8, New England up 71.5, and Carolina up 66.5. Philadelphia had a sneaky injured season, going from third in 2022 to 23rd in 2023 with a rise of 34.7 AGL.

On the other side, the Rams plunged from 146.6 AGL to 26.4 AGL and Denver dropped from 148.6 AGL to 57.7 AGL. The Rams had been in the top 10 for AGL for six straight seasons before their mess in 2022, so this was just a return to form in Los Angeles. Yes, there is a surprising correlation from year to year in AGL. For the last decade, removing COVID games in both 2020 and 2021, the year-to-year correlation for AGL has been .29. However, the year to year correlation from 2022 to 2023 was small and negative at -.14, meaning that the fewer injuries a team had in 2022, the more (slightly) they were likely to have in 2023.

As always, a comparison of offense to defense shows some big gaps between the two sides of the ball. For example, the Atlanta Falcons were extremely healthy on offense but had average health on defense. They didn’t quite set a record for the fewest offensive injuries, finishing just behind the 2022 Steelers, but right tackle Kaleb McGary was the only offensive player with more than 1.0 AGL. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Dallas were also healthier on offense in 2023. Houston, the New York Jets, Indianapolis, and the Los Angeles Chargers were healthier on defense.

Later this week, we’ll look at which teams struggled the most with AGL at each position group in 2023.