Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coaches should go for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actually do go for it based on NFL history. Our current AI numbers use a baseline built from coach decisions since 2018, since that was a year that going for it on fourth down jumped leaguewide.
This year’s top head coach in terms of AI is not one you expect: Jonathan Gannon of the Arizona Cardinals had a league-high AI of 1.67. You probably do expect the next couple names though: Dan Campbell, Nick Sirianni, Kevin Stefanski.
Doug Pederson and Sean McDermott came out surprisingly close to average given their histories as aggressive coaches, but nothing is as surprising as John Harbaugh coming out with an AI of .760, 31st in the NFL! John Harbaugh, one of the smartest and most aggressive coaches in NFL history! I would really like to find out what on earth scared Harbaugh away from going for fourth downs given how good his offense was this season. For example, Baltimore only went for it on 6 of 12 qualifying fourth-and-1s.
You also may be surprised to see Shane Steichen near the bottom, as he’s a coach from the Philadelphia tree. You may heard that the Colts went for it a lot this year, but that’s because they had a lot of opportunities. For example, the Colts had 26 qualifying fourth-and-1s, six more than any other offense. They went for it on less than half of them.
Aggressiveness Index is computed by Jim Armstrong.
| Aggressiveness Index, 2023 | |||||||
| Rank | Coach | Team | AI | Expected Att. | Overall Att. | Overall Opps. | Rate |
| 1 | Gannon | ARI | 1.69 | 10.6 | 18 | 99 | 18.2% |
| 2 | DCampbell | DET | 1.67 | 17.3 | 29 | 104 | 27.9% |
| 3 | Sirianni | PHI | 1.66 | 13.9 | 23 | 99 | 23.2% |
| 4 | Stefanski | CLE | 1.44 | 15.3 | 22 | 129 | 17.1% |
| 5 | Tabor | CAR-2 | 1.37 | 6.6 | 9 | 47 | 19.1% |
| 6 | Vrabel | TEN | 1.25 | 8.8 | 11 | 104 | 10.6% |
| 7 | McCarthy | DAL | 1.23 | 13.9 | 17 | 92 | 18.5% |
| 8 | LaFleur | GB | 1.18 | 11.0 | 13 | 96 | 13.5% |
| 9 | McDaniel | MIA | 1.18 | 12.7 | 15 | 90 | 16.7% |
| 10 | Staley | LAC-1 | 1.15 | 16.5 | 19 | 95 | 20.0% |
| 11 | OConnell | MIN | 1.08 | 13.9 | 15 | 97 | 15.5% |
| 12 | Reich | CAR-1 | 1.04 | 6.7 | 7 | 68 | 10.3% |
| 13 | Payton | DEN | 0.99 | 11.1 | 11 | 107 | 10.3% |
| 14 | Eberflus | CHI | 0.98 | 16.4 | 16 | 110 | 14.5% |
| 15 | KShanahan | SF | 0.97 | 11.3 | 11 | 86 | 12.8% |
| 16 | Rivera | WAS | 0.97 | 12.4 | 12 | 99 | 12.1% |
| 17 | Pederson | JAX | 0.96 | 18.9 | 18 | 108 | 16.7% |
| 18 | McDermott | BUF | 0.93 | 16.1 | 15 | 92 | 16.3% |
| 19 | Taylor | CIN | 0.91 | 15.4 | 14 | 107 | 13.1% |
| 20 | Reid | KC | 0.90 | 11.1 | 10 | 98 | 10.2% |
| 21 | Saleh | NYJ | 0.89 | 12.4 | 11 | 129 | 8.5% |
| 22 | Ryans | HOU | 0.87 | 12.6 | 11 | 115 | 9.6% |
| 23 | Bowles | TB | 0.84 | 10.7 | 9 | 110 | 8.2% |
| 24 | ASmith | ATL | 0.84 | 10.7 | 9 | 108 | 8.3% |
| 25 | Carroll | SEA | 0.82 | 12.1 | 10 | 105 | 9.5% |
| 26 | Allen | NO | 0.82 | 12.2 | 10 | 114 | 8.8% |
| 27 | GSmith | LAC-2 | 0.82 | 3.7 | 3 | 25 | 12.0% |
| 28 | Daboll | NYG | 0.80 | 18.7 | 15 | 123 | 12.2% |
| 29 | McVay | LAR | 0.79 | 14.0 | 11 | 104 | 10.6% |
| 30 | Tomlin | PIT | 0.76 | 13.2 | 10 | 120 | 8.3% |
| 31 | JohnHarbaugh | BAL | 0.76 | 15.8 | 12 | 112 | 10.7% |
| 32 | Steichen | IND | 0.74 | 22.9 | 17 | 116 | 14.7% |
| 33 | Belichick | NE | 0.73 | 12.4 | 9 | 115 | 7.8% |
| 34 | McDaniels | LV-1 | 0.65 | 6.1 | 4 | 40 | 10.0% |
| 35 | Pierce | LV-2 | 0.65 | 9.2 | 6 | 66 | 9.1% |
