2024 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Patriots vs. Panthers (Bears)

It’s the last race you want to win when the contest begins in September.

But by the time December rolls around, you’re kind of rooting for it. The first overall pick. The first place prize for the last place team.

So who is it going to be this year?

Current Odds of Getting the First Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Updated through Week 13.

Team	TOP 3	TOP 5	First Pick	Second Pick	Third Pick
CAR (CHI)	96.2%	99.3%	76.0%	16.5%	3.7%
NE	81.1%	94.7%	20.1%	46.5%	14.5%
ARI	44.3%	77.5%	2.1%	15.8%	26.4%
WAS	29.7%	67.2%	0.7%	9.1%	19.9%
NYG	20.4%	59.3%	0.4%	4.5%	15.5%
NYJ	12.9%	37.6%	0.2%	3.7%	9.0%
CHI	10.2%	29.7%	0.4%	3.3%	6.5%
TEN	4.2%	21.4%	0.0%	0.5%	3.7%

The Contenders: The Worst Teams in the NFL in 2023

If the season ended today, here’s the draft order:

Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers). The Panthers are 1-11. Remaining schedule: @ NO, vs. ATL, vs. GB, @ JAX, vs. TB
New England Patriots. The Patriots are 2-10. Remaining schedule: @ PIT, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ BUF, vs. NYJ
Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are 3-10. Remaining schedule: vs. SF, @ CHI, @ PHI, vs. SEA
Washington Commanders. The Commanders are 4-9. Remaining schedule: @ LAR, @ NYJ, vs. SF, vs. DAL
Chicago Bears. The Bears are 4-8. Remaining schedule: vs. DET, @ CLE, vs. ARI, vs. ATL, @ GB
New York Giants. The Giants are 4-8. Remaining schedule: vs. GB, @ NO, @ PHI, vs. LAR, vs. PHI
Tennessee Titans. The Titans are 4-8. Remaining schedule: @ MIA, vs. HOU, vs. SEA, @ HOU, vs. JAX
New York Jets. The Jets are 4-8. Remaining schedule: vs. HOU, @ MIA, vs. WAS, @ CLE, @ NE
New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 5-7. Remaining schedule: vs. CAR, vs. NYG, @ LAR, @ TB, vs. ATL
Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are 5-7. Remaining schedule: vs. LAC, @ KC, @ IND, vs. DEN

Carolina Panthers Odds of Getting the First Overall Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Team	TOP 3	TOP 5	First Pick	Second Pick	Third Pick
CAR	96.2%	99.3%	76.0%	16.5%	3.7%

We ran the simulations, and the Panthers are a near lock for a top-three pick (96%). The Chicago Bears hold the draft pick, so the Panthers do not have incentive to keep losing.

They currently have a 76% chance of getting the first overall pick.

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Panthers DVOA Ranks

The Panthers have not posted a single game with a positive DVOA rating.

Carolina’s odds of “earning” the first pick are still good even if they win one more game. But if they win two more games, their chances start to look more iffy.

Finish with 1 win: 100% chance to get the first overall pick
Finish with 2 wins: 92.3% chance
3 wins: 66.3% chance
4 wins: 15.6% chance

The Panthers have by far the best odds of securing the No. 1 pick, but a few things are working “against” them. First, they have made several coaching changes. Sometimes, teams are revitalized with an interim head coach, even if it’s only temporary. (For example, the Raiders earlier this year.)

Second, as noted above, the team has no incentive to keep losing. They don’t benefit from getting the first pick.

The team’s remaining schedule (@ NO, vs. ATL, vs. GB, @ JAX, vs. TB) has some winnable games. They have three games against divisional rivals (they lost by just 3 points to the Saints and Bucs), and a date with Jacksonville, which may not have Trevor Lawrence healthy (TBD).

With that said, the Panthers have been bad, through and through, all year. Their weekly DVOA ratings are a sight to behold:

New England Patriots Odds of Getting the First Overall Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Team	TOP 3	TOP 5	First Pick	Second Pick	Third Pick
NE	81.1%	94.7%	20.1%	46.5%	14.5%

Per the simulations, the Patriots are nearly locked into a top-five pick (95%). Their odds of a top-three pick are pretty good (81%), but not quite as high. That’s because the Patriots have some hope down the stretch. They play the Jets in Week 18, Pittsburgh with a backup quarterback, and a Bills team they already beat.

They currently have a 20.1% chance of getting the first overall pick.

Patriots DVOA Ranks

The Patriots have posted three games with a positive DVOA rating.

Here are New England’s odds of securing the first pick based on how the Panthers perform:

If the Panthers only win 1 game, the Patriots have a 0% chance of getting the first pick.
If the Panthers win 2 games: 7.7% chance for the Patriots to get the pick.
3 wins for the Panthers: 33.2% chance for the Patriots.
4 wins for the Panthers: 58.1% chance for the Patriots.

New England has a strong defense (11th in DVOA), which has kept them competitive in nearly every game so far this season (minus back-to-back blowout losses to the Cowboys and Saints).

The Patriots are favored against the Jets in Week 18, per our projections system. If the Patriots win that game, they drop to an 11.8% chance of getting the No. 1 pick (down from 20.1%) and 42.7% chance of getting the No. 2 pick (down from 46.5%).

But if the Patriots lose to the Jets, they jump to a 34.2% chance of getting the first pick and 52.9% of getting the second pick.