Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’re still working on a permanent home page for the DVOA playoff odds report but in the meantime, we wanted to share with our readers all the (almost) preseason odds.
There are a couple of differences between these odds and those from the 2023 preseason projections article.
- Thursday night’s Detroit win over Kansas City is included.
- Nick Bosa’s holdout is gone.
- We’ve added a chance of Kyler Murray returning late in the season for Arizona.
DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Revised as of 09/08/23, through Week 0.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 20,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the Preseason DVOA Projections of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 20,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
This simulation accounts for several holdouts and injuries.
Kansas City’s DVOA is 6% lower with Chris Jones holding out. Jones is back for Week 2 in 20% of simulations. He returns by Week 3 in 20%, by Week 4 in 20%, by Week 6 in 20%, and by Week 8 in the final 20%.
Carolina’s DVOA is 4% lower with Brian Burns holding out. Burns is back for Week 1 in 40% of simulations. He returns by Week 3 in 40% and by Week 5 in the final 20%.
Arizona’s DVOA is 10% higher with Kyler Murray returning. He returns by Week 10 in 20% of simulations, Week 12 in 40%, Week 14 in 60%, and Week 16 in 80%. In 20% of simulations, he misses the entire season.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| DAL | 0-0 | 11.2 | 22.8% | 15.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 55.3% | 30.0% | 85.4% |
| PHI | 0-0 | 10.1 | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 16.8% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 32.8% | 38.3% | 71.0% |
| WAS | 0-0 | 7.7 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 24.9% | 33.2% |
| NYG | 0-0 | 6.5 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 14.0% | 17.7% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| DET | 1-0 | 10.5 | 12.2% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 57.2% | 20.0% | 77.2% |
| GB | 0-0 | 9.2 | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 32.2% | 26.5% | 58.7% |
| MIN | 0-0 | 6.4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 17.9% |
| CHI | 0-0 | 5.6 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 10.0% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| ATL | 0-0 | 10.2 | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 43.9% | 27.6% | 71.5% |
| NO | 0-0 | 10.1 | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 41.7% | 27.2% | 68.9% |
| TB | 0-0 | 7.1 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 24.1% |
| CAR | 0-0 | 6.3 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 15.3% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| SF | 0-0 | 11.1 | 20.4% | 17.7% | 18.0% | 17.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 73.3% | 12.7% | 86.0% |
| SEA | 0-0 | 8.3 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 19.6% | 22.9% | 42.5% |
| LAR | 0-0 | 6.3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 16.3% |
| ARI | 0-0 | 4.6 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| BUF | 0-0 | 10.6 | 14.9% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 43.7% | 24.9% | 68.6% |
| NYJ | 0-0 | 10.1 | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 34.1% | 27.1% | 61.2% |
| MIA | 0-0 | 8.4 | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 19.5% | 32.8% |
| NE | 0-0 | 7.7 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 23.8% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| CLE | 0-0 | 10.5 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 31.0% | 33.8% | 64.8% |
| BAL | 0-0 | 10.0 | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 25.3% | 32.4% | 57.6% |
| CIN | 0-0 | 10.0 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 23.1% | 32.9% | 56.0% |
| PIT | 0-0 | 9.7 | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 20.6% | 32.3% | 52.9% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| JAX | 0-0 | 9.4 | 6.2% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 32.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 61.4% | 4.1% | 65.6% |
| TEN | 0-0 | 7.3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 14.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 21.3% | 5.2% | 26.5% |
| IND | 0-0 | 6.1 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 7.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 13.6% |
| HOU | 0-0 | 5.5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 5.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 8.3% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT |
| KC | 0-1 | 10.1 | 10.5% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 42.7% | 20.7% | 63.5% |
| LAC | 0-0 | 9.5 | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 30.5% | 20.0% | 50.5% |
| LV | 0-0 | 8.4 | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 16.6% | 15.7% | 32.3% |
| DEN | 0-0 | 7.5 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 22.0% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win | 17-0 |
| DAL | 42.3% | 26.9% | 15.2% | 0.3% |
| SF | 39.8% | 22.7% | 11.7% | 0.2% |
| BUF | 29.8% | 17.9% | 10.5% | 0.1% |
| KC | 26.6% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| NYJ | 22.6% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 0.1% |
| PHI | 24.4% | 12.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| DET | 24.5% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 0.1% |
| CLE | 20.8% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| BAL | 16.5% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| CIN | 16.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 14.7% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| ATL | 18.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| PIT | 13.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| NO | 16.8% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| JAX | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| GB | 12.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| SEA | 7.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| LV | 6.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| WAS | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| NE | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| DEN | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| TB | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| NYG | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LAR | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MIN | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| CAR | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
On the Clock
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The numbers do not account for traded picks.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
| ARI | 21.6% | 64.3% |
| HOU | 14.2% | 51.6% |
| CHI | 12.2% | 48.5% |
| IND | 9.4% | 40.4% |
| CAR | 7.7% | 36.2% |
| LAR | 5.6% | 33.2% |
| MIN | 5.2% | 30.9% |
| NYG | 4.7% | 28.8% |
| TB | 3.8% | 23.9% |
| TEN | 3.3% | 21.9% |
| DEN | 2.3% | 16.8% |
| WAS | 1.8% | 15.1% |
| NE | 1.5% | 13.5% |
| SEA | 1.2% | 11.1% |
| LV | 1.2% | 10.7% |
| MIA | 0.8% | 8.4% |
| GB | 0.8% | 7.4% |
| NO | 0.5% | 4.8% |
| JAX | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| LAC | 0.3% | 4.1% |
| ATL | 0.3% | 3.5% |
| PIT | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| PHI | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| CIN | 0.2% | 2.3% |
| BAL | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| NYJ | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| KC | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| CLE | 0.1% | 1.7% |
| DET | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| BUF | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| SF | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| DAL | 0.0% | 0.7% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups
| Name | Teams | Chance |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 4.8% |
| Chris Berman’s Dream | SF vs BUF | 4.1% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 4.0% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 3.6% |
| Robert Saleh Reunion Special | SF vs NYJ | 2.8% |
| Amari Cooper Reunion Special | DAL vs CLE | 2.8% |
| AAFC Memorial Bowl | SF vs CLE | 2.3% |
| Chili Cookoff | DAL vs CIN | 2.3% |
| LeSean McCoy Classic | PHI vs BUF | 2.2% |
| Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch | DAL vs BAL | 2.1% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 1.9% |
| Super Bowl LVII Rematch | PHI vs KC | 1.8% |
| Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch | DAL vs PIT | 1.7% |
| Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch | SF vs CIN | 1.6% |
| Trent Baalke Reunion Special | SF vs JAX | 1.2% |
| 2019 Peach Bowl Rematch | PHI vs CIN | 1.1% |
| Hell Freezes Over | DET vs CLE | 1.1% |
| Tyrann Mathieu Reunion Special | NO vs KC | 1.1% |
| The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam | PHI vs BAL | 1.0% |
| Doug Pederson Reunion Special | PHI vs JAX | 0.9% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl VI Rematch | DAL vs MIA | 0.8% |
| Blue Cheese Bowl | GB vs BUF | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl XIX Rematch | SF vs MIA | 0.7% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 0.7% |
| Calais Campbell Reunion Special | ATL vs BAL | 0.7% |
| Jessie Bates Reunion Special | ATL vs CIN | 0.7% |
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 0.5% |
| Who Dey vs. Who Dat | NO vs CIN | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.4% |
| Pete Carroll Reunion Special | SEA vs NYJ | 0.4% |
| Battle of the Dynasties | DAL vs NE | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XII Rematch | DAL vs DEN | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XXIV Rematch | SF vs DEN | 0.3% |
| Ace Ventura Bowl | PHI vs MIA | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XV Rematch | PHI vs LV | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Terron Armstead Reunion Special | NO vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch | PHI vs NE | 0.2% |
| A Song of Ice and Fire | GB vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl LI Rematch | ATL vs NE | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl II Rematch | GB vs LV | 0.1% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 0.1% |
| Dennis Allen Reunion Special | NO vs LV | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch | ATL vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXV Rematch | NYG vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Todd Bowles Reunion Special | TB vs NYJ | 0.1% |
| Fifth Time’s The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 0.1% |
| Exit 16W Bowl | NYG vs NYJ | 0.1% |
| Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch | WAS vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Von Miller Reunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 0.1% |
| A.J. Brown Reunion Special | PHI vs TEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXI Rematch | GB vs NE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XVIII Rematch | WAS vs LV | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLIX Rematch | SEA vs NE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 0.1% |
| Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special | MIN vs CLE | 0.1% |
