Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a guest column from Ajit Kirpekar.
Better late than never, let’s look at 2022 Rate of Adjusted Pressure (RAP) numbers.
For those unfamiliar, Rate of Adjusted Pressure is an opponent-adjusted metric for measuring a team’s success at generating or avoiding pressure. It’s calculated using a machine learning model that first predicts the probability of pressure from a set of variables and then is re-rerun with the opponent specific inputs set to average. The difference between the two accounts for the opponent. For a more detailed explanation, assuming the site one day comes back, see this link. Our data comes from various sources: first, the old Football Outsiders game charting project, then Sports Info Solutions, and then FTN Data for 2022.
In the past, I’ve begun this annual article with an overview of changes to the model. There wasn’t enough time for that in 2023 as this article figuratively comes hot off the presses.
I also like to examine the results from a few big trades in the offseason. Unfortunately, this time you are only going to get a review of one big trade: the landmark trade by the Broncos and Seahawks for Russell Wilson. As most of you are aware, the early results of the trade have been ghastly for Denver, but it’s important to remember the narrative coming into the 2022 season. At the time, Wilson’s time in Seattle, though wildly successful, felt a bit uneven and there was a lot of discussion about what Wilson would look like outside of Seattle and his staid scheme. The slogan, “Let Russ Cook” wasn ‘t popular for no reason. From a pressure perspective, I was quite curious how Wilson would look. His time in Seattle was marked by terrible sack and pressure numbers since the day he first took snaps. Well as it turns out, while the rest of Wilson’s game took a sharp nosedive, his pressure numbers in Denver saw a dramatic decrease that stands in sharp contrast to his days in Seattle.
| Russell Wilson Pressure, 2012-2022 | ||
| Year | Team | Pressure Rate |
| 2012 | SEA | 35% |
| 2013 | SEA | 41% |
| 2014 | SEA | 44% |
| 2015 | SEA | 37% |
| 2016 | SEA | 36% |
| 2017 | SEA | 41% |
| 2018 | SEA | 38% |
| 2019 | SEA | 37% |
| 2020 | SEA | 31% |
| 2021 | SEA | 33% |
| 2022 | DEN | 28% |
Now, check out Geno Smith by comparison.
| Geno Smith Pressure, 2013-2022 | ||
| Year | Team | Pressure Rate |
| 2013 | NYJ | 32% |
| 2014 | NYJ | 35% |
| 2022 | SEA | 29% |
This was just Geno’s third season with over 200 attempts so it’s probably a bit unfair to draw many conclusions. That said, despite high pressure rates early in his career, Geno’s time in Seattle was also marked by an improved pressure rate that was also starkly different from the pressure rate for his predecessor.
Now, onto the offensive rankings:
| Rate of Adjusted Pressure, 2022 Offenses | ||||||
| Rank | Team | RAP | Pressure Rate | Difference | RPA | RPA Rank |
| 1 | TB | 17.9% | 16.4% | -1.5% | 40.5% | 32 |
| 2 | NO | 19.4% | 17.7% | -1.7% | 34.6% | 18 |
| 3 | BUF | 20.2% | 18.3% | -1.9% | 20.8% | 2 |
| 4 | JAX | 21.0% | 20.9% | -0.1% | 34.4% | 17 |
| 5 | DAL | 21.1% | 21.0% | -0.1% | 32.6% | 11 |
| 6 | GB | 21.4% | 19.4% | -2.0% | 35.8% | 22 |
| 7 | DET | 23.0% | 23.4% | 0.4% | 35.0% | 19 |
| 8 | HOU | 23.7% | 22.4% | -1.3% | 38.5% | 28 |
| 9 | PIT | 23.9% | 22.7% | -1.2% | 30.5% | 4 |
| 10 | LAC | 24.1% | 24.4% | 0.3% | 40.5% | 31 |
| 11 | SF | 24.2% | 25.3% | 1.2% | 35.3% | 20 |
| 12 | CIN | 24.4% | 27.7% | 3.3% | 32.2% | 8 |
| 13 | ARI | 24.8% | 23.8% | -1.0% | 37.1% | 26 |
| 14 | ATL | 25.3% | 28.9% | 3.6% | 32.0% | 7 |
| 15 | PHI | 25.5% | 24.4% | -1.1% | 30.7% | 5 |
| 16 | MIN | 25.5% | 23.9% | -1.6% | 36.4% | 24 |
| Rank | Team | RAP | Pressure Rate | Difference | RPA | RPA Rank |
| 17 | MIA | 25.9% | 23.4% | -2.5% | 35.6% | 21 |
| 18 | CLE | 26.0% | 26.3% | 0.3% | 32.5% | 10 |
| 19 | NE | 26.0% | 27.8% | 1.8% | 34.1% | 15 |
| 20 | BAL | 26.6% | 29.0% | 2.4% | 27.5% | 3 |
| 21 | NYJ | 26.9% | 26.4% | -0.5% | 32.6% | 12 |
| 22 | LV | 27.1% | 26.5% | -0.6% | 32.3% | 9 |
| 23 | IND | 27.5% | 27.6% | 0.1% | 31.7% | 6 |
| 24 | DEN | 28.3% | 26.2% | -2.1% | 36.0% | 23 |
| 25 | KC | 29.7% | 29.2% | -0.5% | 19.4% | 1 |
| 26 | CAR | 29.9% | 33.6% | 3.7% | 37.7% | 27 |
| 27 | LAR | 29.9% | 30.5% | 0.6% | 34.2% | 16 |
| 28 | TEN | 30.4% | 29.6% | -0.8% | 33.2% | 13 |
| 29 | SEA | 30.5% | 31.4% | 0.9% | 33.6% | 14 |
| 30 | CHI | 32.7% | 31.6% | -1.1% | 38.8% | 29 |
| 31 | NYG | 33.3% | 32.7% | -0.6% | 39.4% | 30 |
| 32 | WAS | 33.4% | 35.0% | 1.6% | 36.7% | 25 |
I ‘ve included a stat called Rate of Pressure Avoidance, or RPA, which has been rebranded from its original name Rate of Gutless Passing, which you can (maybe) read about here. It basically measures a team’s willingness to chance pressure in the name of advancing the sticks versus waving the white flag.
Tom Brady‘s last (maybe?) season saw him finally achieve yet another record: the first time the team he quarterbacked has ranked number 1 in RAP. Brady has usually been pretty good in this metric, but this year was his best finish of his entire career. That said, the RPA number was also last in the league, meaning his offense was the most willing to avoid pressure situations — which is likely a big part of why the Bucs ranked first in RAP. As is worth mentioning over and over, finishing high in RAP does not imply your offense was doing everything right.
On the flip side, we saw a few teams rank poorly in RAP despite being among the league leaders in Rate of Pressure Avoidance. These teams included the Chicago Bears, the New York Giants, and the Washington Commanders.
Finally, you ‘ll notice a funny thing about the RPA numbers. Almost every team has an RPA above 30%. In situations that are obvious passing downs, almost 30 percent of the time, teams are opting to wave the white flag in an effort to mitigate against interceptions, sacks and hurries. However, two teams stand in absolute stark contrast to this: Buffalo and Kansas City, who wave the white flag a whopping 20% of the time. If anything, this speaks well of their lines — especially Buffalo’s, which third in RAP despite having such an aggressive offense.
Now for the defenses:
| Rate of Adjusted Pressure, 2022 Defenses | ||||||
| Rank | Defense | RAP | Pressure Rate | Difference | RPA | RPA Rank |
| 1 | DAL | 35.4% | 32.7% | 2.7% | 41.5% | 2 |
| 2 | PHI | 34.6% | 32.8% | 1.8% | 35.7% | 10 |
| 3 | WAS | 32.1% | 30.4% | 1.7% | 34.3% | 16 |
| 4 | SEA | 31.3% | 30.2% | 1.1% | 32.7% | 23 |
| 5 | NE | 30.8% | 29.7% | 1.1% | 28.0% | 31 |
| 6 | LAC | 30.6% | 28.8% | 1.2% | 25.5% | 32 |
| 7 | PIT | 29.3% | 29.1% | 0.2% | 30.6% | 28 |
| 8 | DEN | 28.1% | 27.3% | 0.8% | 28.6% | 30 |
| 9 | CIN | 27.9% | 26.9% | 1.0% | 34.2% | 17 |
| 10 | SF | 27.7% | 27.2% | 0.5% | 40.3% | 3 |
| 11 | TB | 27.3% | 26.3% | 1.0% | 33.3% | 21 |
| 12 | HOU | 27.0% | 25.4% | 1.6% | 33.9% | 18 |
| 13 | TEN | 26.8% | 26.4% | 0.4% | 29.6% | 29 |
| 14 | JAX | 26.7% | 25.1% | 1.6% | 33.1% | 22 |
| 15 | DET | 26.0% | 25.1% | 0.9% | 31.1% | 27 |
| 16 | KC | 25.9% | 25.5% | 0.4% | 34.9% | 13 |
| Rank | Defense | RAP | Pressure Rate | Difference | RPA | RPA Rank |
| 17 | ARI | 25.8% | 26.6% | -0.8% | 41.8% | 1 |
| 18 | GB | 25.0% | 26.7% | -1.7% | 33.5% | 19 |
| 19 | IND | 24.9% | 24.6% | 0.3% | 36.5% | 8 |
| 20 | LV | 24.5% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 35.3% | 12 |
| 21 | BAL | 24.4% | 24.7% | -0.3% | 34.5% | 15 |
| 22 | NYJ | 24.2% | 25.6% | -1.4% | 32.0% | 25 |
| 23 | MIN | 22.9% | 24.6% | -1.3% | 36.6% | 7 |
| 24 | BUF | 22.4% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 38.8% | 4 |
| 25 | NYG | 22.4% | 24.4% | -2.0% | 36.3% | 9 |
| 26 | LAR | 22.2% | 24.1% | -1.9% | 37.8% | 6 |
| 27 | CAR | 21.8% | 23.0% | -1.2% | 32.5% | 24 |
| 28 | MIA | 20.9% | 22.5% | -1.6% | 38.1% | 5 |
| 29 | CLE | 20.7% | 21.9% | -1.2% | 33.3% | 20 |
| 30 | NO | 19.1% | 21.9% | -2.8% | 35.6% | 11 |
| 31 | ATL | 15.3% | 18.3% | -3.0% | 34.5% | 14 |
| 32 | CHI | 14.9% | 16.6% | -1.7% | 31.4% | 26 |
Last year’s Eagles broke a record for sack total, so I was excited to see where Philly would land on the all-time RAP list. While they finished with a very healthy and powerful RAP figure, not only were they not the best RAP team of all time, they in fact finished second to their division rival the Dallas Cowboys. That said, both teams now rank just outside the top 10 all-time RAP teams going back to 2006. (The 2007 Steelers rank first as of this last iteration of the numbers.) Two years ago, Philly was a below average RAP team, but they had an enormous lead in terms of RPA as teams actively avoided obvious pressure situations against them. In 2022, that figure fell to 10th; meanwhile their division rival finished second in RPA — a figure suggesting that Dallas was an under-the-radar all-time pass-rushing unit last year.
On the flip side, after finishing with a league worst RAP of 17% two years ago, Atlanta actually improved in the nominal rankings but declined overall from a lowly 17% to 15% in 2022, finishing runner up to the last place Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, 2022 saw for the first time a Sean McVay-led Rams team fall apart in RAP. After ranking in the top 10 every year since McVay arrived in LA, the Rams careened down the rankings as yet another symptom of the Super Bowl hangover.
Meanwhile, special shout out to Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots as they were the only team to repeat a top five showing in RAP the following year. As I wrote a year ago, Belichick’s 2000s defenses started strong in RAP before hitting a swoon during the mid-2010s and have now been trending up over the last few years. For all the faults New England has experienced in the post Tom Brady period, Belichick continues to carry his defensive calling card.
