On The Bump - MLB DFS Pitching Primer (8/9)

Sunday’s main MLB DFS slate is an eight-game option — which is an awesome way to distinguish and separate ourselves on the pitching landscape.

Every day in this space, we’ll break down the top pitching situations of the day for DFS to help you identify who to lock into your daily lineups for maximum profit.

I’ll first identify the pitchers who stand out given their matchups, price tag and Vegas lines, among others various factors. We will also look at any star arms that stick out, and if there are any cheap pitchers we may want to consider in tournament formats either as your SP2 on DraftKings or as your horse on FanDuel.

There are some pricey arms on Sunday’s slate — including an $11,000-plus Jacob deGrom that takes the ball and a $10,000 José Berríos. Let’s dive in.

MLB DFS pitching picks for Aug. 9

At first glance:

Jacob deGrom vs. MIA
José Berríos at KC
Lance Lynn vs. LAA
Sonny Gray at MIL
Pablo López at NYM

Fades

Charlie Morton vs. NYY

Morton takes the bump against the Yankees, and that monster offense is one I am always looking to stay away from. While Giancarlo Stanton has landed on the Injured List, that doesn’t mean the Yankees are a poor offense. Mike Tauchman and Mike Ford are tearing the cover off the baseball, and while Morton’s 3.1% walk rate has been solid, his 31.1% ground-ball rate scares me a bit. Fade. Fade. Fade.

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Picks

Jacob deGrom vs. MIA

I will try to keep this as short as possible, but holy cow, it’s almost becoming automatic to roster deGrom for DFS purposes.

Over 17 innings pitched, deGrom is rocking a 35.5% strikeout rate this season, a microscopic 4.8% walk rate and 22 strikeouts over 17 innings pitched. He’s also recorded a very strong 43.2% ground-ball rate, which has led to 0.53 home runs per nine innings pitched.

This Marlins story has been interesting, but their offense is struggling — a .314 wOBA mark and a hefty 24.1% strikeout rate. They don’t look to have much of a chance against the two-time Cy Young winner.

If you can afford deGrom, spend up wisely.

José Berríos at KC

Who knew that the Royals were going to trade places with the Twins and bash their way to a win? Certainly not me, but Jake Odorizzi, one of Saturday’s fades, was absolutely obliterated by this lineup.

Can Berrios tame these bats? Most likely. While he only has a 20.3% strikeout rate on the young season, he has noticeably upped his changeup usage (+4%), and his 10.4% swinging-strike rate portends that the whiffs are coming. In addition, he’s lowered that nasty fly-ball rate even further down to 34.1%.

While the Royals sparked that offense Saturday, it still isn’t one we want to be afraid of — they are up to 11th in wOBA (.319), but they don’t walk a ton (5.2%) and their 22.7% strikeout rate is more than plenty for us to roster against. With a tiny 4.35 implied team total for the Royals, Berrios makes for a solid fall back option if rostering deGrom doesn’t fit into your budget.

Lance Lynn vs. LAA

It’s tough to ignore mentioning how dominant Lynn has been so far in the 2020 season. He might be the AL Cy Young frontrunner right now.

Over 18.1 innings pitched across three starts, Lynn has ripped off a 34.8% strikeout rate and only a 0.49 ERA. That said, there are some major warning signs here, too. He’s got a 25.0% ground-ball rate, and a cringe-worthy 13.0% walk rate — that’s been a bit of a bug-a-boo for him in the past and it could get amplified against an Angels team that walks a lot (more shortly).

The Angels certainly are not without their warts — they only have a .322 wOBA this year, but there’s other reasons to be scared of this lineup. They now have Anthony Rendon back in the mix, Jo Adell returned Saturday night, they walk at a hefty clip (10.1%), and they are hitting the ball with authority (.174 ISO).

Lynn could go out and put up another solid outing, but I would tread carefully here.

Sonny Gray at MIL

I’m probably rostering the righty Gray above Lynn, especially when I consider that he is $300 cheaper than the Rangers starter.

Both pitchers have gotten off to tremendous starts — Gray has been overshadowed in the National League by guys like deGrom. Perhaps something exists in the Ohio water with both Trevor Bauer and Gray whiffing everyone, but Gray also owns a strikeout rate above 40% on the season (41.2%), and he’s kept the walks in check as well (7.2%). What makes Gray so appealing is that sexy ground-ball rate, which currently sits at 52.9%.

This matchup gets even more juicy when you peek at the struggling Brewers offense. Keston Hiura and Christian Yelich still have not yet found their form, and it’s a big reason why the Brew Crew clocks in with the fourth-worst wOBA in the league (.284) and a monster 29.1% strikeout rate. This isn’t a feast-or-famine type of offense, either, as their .122 ISO is absolutely dreadful.

This game has a microscopic over/under of only 7.0 runs, and that makes Gray a very strong play.

Let’s get nuts

Pablo López @ NYM

Lopez has the unenviable task of squaring off head-to-head with deGrom in Sunday’s matchup, trying to steal the series away from New York.

But if you missed Lopez’s first start, it was gorgeous. He didn’t issue a free pass and had a whopping 41.2% strikeout rate on the strength of a nasty change-up while ditching a cutter. It translated to a 16.4% swinging-strike rate. Ooh mama, that’s a bad man.

In terms of wOBA, the Mets have been solid with a .323 mark (11th), but their ISO (.136) and strikeout rate (23.6%) are both ones we want to focus on. At only $7,000, don’t ignore Lopez.