Crossed Up: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not in Fantasy Baseball (5/22)

When it comes to the pitching landscape in the 2024 season, a massive chunk of the discussion gets centered around injuries, and rightfully so. But at the same time, we’re seeing plenty of performance shifts from pitchers across baseball, both positively and negatively.

We as fantasy managers need to act accordingly. Are these performances legit? What is the cause for the rise or fall in production? Basically, we need to ask who, what, where, when, and why. Well, maybe not where, but you catch my drift.

That’s exactly what I’ll be doing today with five pitchers whose production has intrigued me this year for one reason or another. We have a good mix of names from a former top draft pick to a pitcher who was a relative unknown up until this season.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

There’s no doubting that Hunter Greene is enjoyable to watch every time he takes the mound. But fun and enjoyment isn’t always what helps you win fantasy leagues. Performance is, and while Greene certainly hasn’t been bad during his Major League career, many had hoped for and expected more.

Is that more finally happening? Greene has posted a 2.03 ERA over his last five starts to drop his ERA from 4.55 to 3.22 on the season to go along with a 1.16 WHIP, 9.8% walk rate and a 27% strikeout rate. But Greene has had hot streaks before, what is different about this one? Well, this season, Greene’s four-seamer has been head and shoulders better than last-year’s marks.

With Greene being primarily a two-pitch pitcher who has to make half of his starts in Great American Ballpark, these four-seam improvements are incredibly encouraging to see. I’d still feel better if Greene developed any resemblance of an impactful third offering, but this will do for now. If Greene’s fastball improvements stick, we could see him push top-25 SP status.

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

After a nice showing in 2023 when transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation, Seth Lugo has climbed to a whole new level this season. In 10 starts, the 34-year-old right hander has amassed a 1.79 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across 65.1 innings of work. Should you buy into this new look Lugo? The short answer is, not entirely.

If we take a gander at Lugo’s ERA indicators, his xERA, xFIP and SIERA sit at 3.58, 3.56 and 3.61 respectively. On top of that, he continues to allow contact and hard contact at higher than league average rates and Lugo’s 22.7% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017.

I’m not saying he can’t be useful for fantasy or that last year was a fluke. However, Lugo’s metrics simply don’t support the level he’s pitching at currently. If you’re able to sell high, I’d recommend going down that path.

Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels

Every month or two, I see people on social media getting excited about Griffin Canning. One of those times is right now, because Canning has a 3.31 ERA over the last 30 days. But do you know what Canning also has over the last month? A 5.07 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, 5.51 SIERA and a 3% K-BB rate that is the second worst among qualified starters, trailing only Patrick Corbin.

The endless cycle of “is he putting it together?” really needs to stop. Canning has a career 4.64 ERA and has been above a 5.00 ERA in two of the last three seasons if you include 2024. On top of that, Canning’s strikeout rate has dropped to 16.1% along with a 22% whiff rate and 87.3% zone contact rate. All three of those metrics represent career-worst marks for Canning.

As for his arsenal, all four pitches that Canning uses at least 10% of the time have a BAA of .245 or higher right now and his four-seam fastball has a .612 SLG allowed, partially due to his terrible command of the offering.

In the wise words of Regina George from Mean Girls, “Stop trying to make fetch happen. It’s not going to happen!”

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

We might as well double up on Angels pitchers this week. Remember when Reid Detmers was dominating in April? Those were fun times, weren’t they? Through Detmers’ first four starts of the season, he had a stellar 1.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 26.7% K-BB rate and a .195 BAA. However, in his last six starts, Detmers has posted a stomach-turning 9.09 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 11.5% K-BB rate and .321 BAA. What the bleep happened?

The easy answer would be to say that he obviously wasn’t as good as he showed in those first four starts. Duh, right? But even the biggest Detmers skeptic wouldn’t predict an ERA north of nine over the last month.

For starters, Detmers’ fastball has been atrocious in the month of May with a .367 BAA, .833 SLG and .543 wOBA. In addition, his curveball which has a BAA of under .210 in each of the last two seasons currently has a .700 BAA, 1.400 SLG, and .903 wOBA allowed this month. And in general, Detmers is leaving way too many pitches over the heart of the plate.

There’s a middle ground to be had here, and it’s probably in the vicinity of Detmers’ 2023 season when he finished with a 4.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate in 148.2 innings. His career numbers are in that range as well. Detmers is a streaky pitcher that will look unhittable for a few starts and then take a sledgehammer to your ratios for the next few starts. This is what he is. Stop expecting more.

Cooper Criswell, Boston Red Sox

Even as a Red Sox fan, I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop with Cooper Criswell for basically the entire season. My thought was that either his production was going to regress or that he’d move into a long relief role once guys like Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock returned from their respective injuries. Well, Criswell is still pitching well, and his rotation spot appears to be locked in for now with Whitlock now out for the season with a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow.

As a right-hander who averages 89 mph on his sinker, there’s not a lot of margin for error with Criswell. However, the pitch has a .178 xBA this season and has helped Criswell post a 49% groundball rate so far. In general, the only pitch underperforming for Criswell right now is his sweeper with a .300 BAA and .533 SLG allowed this season.

Everything from Criswell is thrown in the lower zones with the exception of the occasional cutter. Criswell might not be the flashiest guy around, but he commands his pitches well, limits walks (5.6%), and keeps the ball in the yard. Criswell also gets ahead in the count better than most pitchers with a 69.7% first pitch strike rate, 8.8% above the big-league average.

At this point, I’m moving past my “Sell high because this isn’t going to last” thought process and considering Criswell a top-100 pitcher moving forward. There’s not a ton of dynasty appeal here, but he’s a fine redraft option for the remainder of the season.