FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 11 games on tap for Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 3 | NBA DFS First Look
Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
POR -3.5, total: 220.5
Pace: POR (12th), CLE (T20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Isaac Okoro and Kevin Love have been ruled out for the Cavaliers.
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
IND -1.5, total: 219
Pace: NYK (26th), IND (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Malcolm Brogdon is expected to play for the Pacers, while Jeremy Lamb and TJ Warren remain out.
- Taj Gibson and Nerlens Noel are questionable for the Knicks.
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
BOS -7, total: 215.5
Pace: BOS (15th), ORL (T24th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -1, total: 216.5
Pace: CHI (T20th), PHI (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- Tobias Harris is out for the Sixers.
- Coby White remains out for the Bulls.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3.5, total: 218.5
Pace: TOR (T27th), WAS (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Pascal Siakam remains out, while Scottie Barnes has also been ruled out for the Raptors.
- Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans remain out for the Wizards.
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -5, total: 218.5
Pace: ATL (T27th), BKN (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are probable, while John Collins is listed as questionable for the Hawks.
- Nicolas Claxton is out for the Nets.
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -1.5, total: 213.0
Pace: DEN (T24th), MEM (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -1, total: 217.5
Pace: LAC (8th), MIN (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- D’Angelo Russell has been ruled out for the Timberwolves.
- Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka remain out for the Clippers, as does Kawhi Leonard.
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
DAL -1.5, total: 216.5
Pace: DAL (29th), SAS (T5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable after missing the last three games for the Mavs, while Maxi Kleber has been ruled out.
- Doug McDermott is questionable for the Spurs.
Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -6, total: 225.5
Pace: CHA (T5th), GSW (T5th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -5.5, total: 218.5
Pace: NOP (17th), SAC (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Brandon Ingram is questionable for the Pelicans after missing Tuesday’s game.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
Anthony Edwards sees a 4.5% increase in usage rate with D’Angelo Russell off the court this season.
Edwards’ usage rate jumps to a team-high 34.7%, as he also sees a 15.2% assist rate and 11.3% rebounding rate. He was able to turn this opportunity into a 24-point, 6-rebound, 3-assist outing against the Magic in his last game without Russell and has a similar opportunity once again on Wednesday against the Clippers. For under $8,500, he makes for an elite tournament play as a volume player with expanded opportunity.
With Brandon Ingram out Tuesday, Jonas Valanciunas led the Pelicans in usage rate (26%), rebounding rate (43.8), and minutes (35:52).
For years, the only hindrance to Valanciunas’ mega-ceiling were his minutes, and finally, that’s no longer in the way. He’s averaging a career-high 34.3 minutes per game, funneling directly into career-highs in points per game (19.9), rebounds per game (14.5) and assists per game (2.6). This dominance should only continue on Wednesday against an undersized (relative to Valanciunas) Kings’ frontcourt with Ingram out once again, making his price hike well worth it.
Last season with Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris off the court, Joel Embiid posted a 45.5% usage rate and averaged 2.11 DraftKings points per minute.
Those are video game numbers. He added a 31.3% assist rate and 25.3% rebounding rate (all four metrics leading the team) in the 156.7 minutes without the other two on the court last season, simply dominating in all facets of the game. We haven’t seen Embiid dominate this season and it certainly looks like his knee is bothering him, as his minutes have seen a slight reduction as well, but the ceiling here in a competitive game is arguably the highest on the slate.
In 74.7 minutes with D’Angelo Russell off the floor this season, Malik Beasley has posted a 22.3% usage rate and averages 0.95 DraftKings points per minute.
Neither of these are nearly as eye-popping as Embiid’s on/off splits in his scenario, but Beasley rejoins the rotation as an integral piece when Russell is unavailable and comes in for only $4,100 on DraftKings. His 32 minutes last game without Russell were a season-high, as were his 16 shot attempts. He was only able to convert on four of them, but the efficiency is something that should naturally come around, as it’s the volume we should be chasing. On such a large slate with so many studs, getting the upside that Beasley provides for only $4,100 stands out as arguably the best value option on the slate.
Cole Anthony is averaging more touches per game (83.3) than Damian Lillard (77.4), Jayson Tatum (76.0), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (75.3).
Anthony also ranks sixth in the entire NBA in time of possession per game (7.2 minutes), ranking ahead of individuals like Chris Paul, LeBron James and Damian Lillard. Clearly, his surface-level production is backed up by his underlying involvement in this offense, as it’s very clearly running straight through him. He’s been especially hot over his last four games, averaging 23.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in 35.6 minutes on 52.5% shooting from the field. Paying $7,600 on DraftKings for Anthony may instill a heap of sticker shock, but the price tag is certainly warranted.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- Stephen Curry ($11,100)
- Paul George ($10,900)
- Kevin Durant ($10,800)
- Luka Doncic ($10,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,200)
- Kevin Durant ($10,800)
- Paul George ($10,500)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400)
- Luka Doncic ($10,300)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- James Harden (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Domantas Sabonis (1.05x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Tuesday’s slate was a lower-scoring one, particularly on DraftKings, with a winning score under 325. It remained high (as normal) on FanDuel, where it’s much easier to fit almost whoever you want, but the winning score fell below 400 for one of the few times this season.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450 Fadeaway ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Mike Conley (39.75)
SG: Jalen Brunson (37.75)
SF: Josh Hart (34.25)
PF: Jae Crowder (35.50)
C: Rudy Gobert (48.50)
G: Chris Paul (53.50)
F: Anthony Davis (50.75)
UTIL: JaVale McGee (24.25)
Total: 324.00
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Kyle Lowry (40.5)
PG: Mike Conley (35.6)
SG: Donovan Mitchell (54.6)
SG: Jalen Brunson (34.9)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (60.1)
SF: Tim Hardaway (28.1)
PF: Christian Wood (51.7)
PF: Frank Kaminsky (39.1)
C: Rudy Gobert (49.5)
Total: 394.1
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s Jump Shot ($5k to first) Tuesday night.
G: Russell Westbrook (56.06)
G: Donovan Mitchell (69.00)
G: Chris Paul (69.23)
F: LeBron James (62.67)
F: Giannis Antetokoumnmpo (62.00)
F: Christian Wood (69.38)
C: Rudy Gobert (65.00)
Total: 453.35
With only five games on the slate, ownership was condensed around similar value pieces (Jalen Brunson, Mike Conley) across multiple platforms, but it was surprising to see the winning DraftKings lineup not have Antetokounmpo, who was the highest-scoring stud, or Donovan Mitchell, who approached nearly 60 DraftKings points for under $9,000. Instead, it opted for balance around Anthony Davis, their highest-pricing player ($9,700).
Also notable was the Frank Kaminsky play on FanDuel, which ended up going for over 11x value. With Deandre Ayton ruled out, nearly 20% of the field rushed to play JaVale McGee for $4,300. While McGee was an extremely strong play, there was still a path to failure and Kaminsky was the leverage. This is a situation where that strategy paid off in a big way.
