Top 5 NFL DFS slate-breakers for Week 8

The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s true. 

Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.” 

Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.

Here are the 5 players most likely to break the slate in Week 8.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

For starters, our NFL DFS Optimizer loves Josh Allen this week. He’s the top-projected DraftKings point scorer across all positions on the main slate. And it’s easy to see why. Allen has demolished the Miami Dolphins in seven career meetings:

All of the most meaningful stats are up across the board. Nearly 3 TDs per game, 250 pass yards per game, 50-plus rush yards per game, and nearly 30 fantasy PPG — up about 43% from his already-high average of 21.

The Bills are playing at home as 13.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 31.5. Don’t overthink this one. Allen has a 4-plus total TD upside with an extremely high rushing floor. The only risk is he sits the majority of the second half — but if that happens, it will be because Allen got it done in the first.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

This one comes in two flavors. On one side, you have Mixon as potentially lower owned than he really should be for such a good matchup because plenty of people will want to stack Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase against the Jets. On the other side, Mixon himself has a pristine matchup and the three-down chops needed to break a slate, though Samaje Perine’s emergence is certainly a threat to Mixon’s workload.

Mixon has been hot recently, scoring a TD in four straight games. And on the year, Mixon’s expected rushing yards ranks second behind only Derrick Henry. Mixon has handled every non-QB-sneak goal line attempt for the Bengals this season and 64% of the team’s red zone attempts. Against a Jets defense that has allowed a league-worst 1.7 rush TDs per game to RBs this year, a league-worst 9 receptions and 80 receiving yards per game to RBs, and (by far) the league’s most fantasy points to the position (24% more than any other team!), Mixon has a path to 150-plus total yards and multiple TDs. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Kamara faces the toughest run D in the league in the Buccaneers, but we all know that Kamara’s best asset is through the air, and the Bucs are plenty susceptible to RBs coming out of the backfield. They allowed 6 combined receptions to Dallas duo Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, 12 to Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis, 8 to New England’s Brandon Bolden and Damien Harris, 12 to Miami’s Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed, and 5 to Khalil Herbert last week. Gaskin in particular ripped the Bucs for a 10-74-2 receiving line in Week 5. And for what it’s worth, Herbert exposed them on the ground last week, going for 100 rushing yards on 18 attempts. 

Considering that Kamara has 33 targets (26.4% target share, per our Air Yards tool), and no other Saints RB has more than 6, it’s safe to assume Kamara could easily rack between 6-10 receptions this week. He’s also the team’s clear-cut red zone and goal-line back (17 RZ attempts, no other Saints RB has more than 2, per our Red Zone Report).

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Kupp has another A1 matchup on tap. Not that there are many CBs out there that can contain Kupp, but he once again has the best individual WR-CB matchup of the week. 

Kupp will mostly square off against Tavierre Thomas, who has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per route covered (0.29) among all starting slot cornerbacks this week. Kupp, for his part, is tops among slot WRs – and all WRs, for that matter — with 0.76 fantasy points per route run.

And Kupp’s red zone usage is 2020 Davante Adams-esque. According to the FTN Red Zone Report, Kupp has the most RZ targets (24) in the league. With so many designed plays for him at the goal line, he’s one of the best bets to score each week. He has scored multiple TDs in over half of his games.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel has the second-best individual WR-CB matchup of the week, behind only Kupp.

Samuel lines up all over the field (35% left, 25% slot, 40% right), so he’ll get a sampling of every Bears CB. Duke Shelley in the slot is particularly exposable, as he’s allowing a 77% catch rate and .30 fantasy points per route covered. Samuel has been alpha-ing in San Francisco, rocking a 30% team target market share (fourth-highest in the league).

On the year, the Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs and have struggled to contain legitimate WR1s all year. The biggest names they’ve had success against include Odell Beckham (5-77-0) and Davante Adams (4-89-0). But on the flip side, they were destroyed just last week by both Mike Evans (6-76-3) and Chris Godwin (8-111-1).