Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 10 games on tap on Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Oct. 27 | NBA DFS First Look
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
CHA -6, total: 216.5
Pace: CHA (6th), ORL (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Terry Rozier is doubtful, and PJ Washington is listed as out for the Hornets.
- Markelle Fultz, Chuma Okeke and Michael Carter-Williams remain out for the Magic.
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics
BOS -4.5, total: 224.5
Pace: WAS (16th), BOS (T11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Al Horford is listed as probable for the Celtics.
- Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant remain out for the Wizards, while Raul Neto is listed as questionable.
Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -4.5, total: 218.0
Pace: MIA (22nd), BKN (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
IND -1.5, total: 218.5
Pace: IND (T14th), TOR (28th)
Situations to monitor:
- Caris LeVert is listed as questionable for the Pacers.
Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans
ATL -6, total: 219.5
Pace: ATL (T20th), NO (T11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Josh Hart is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
- De’Andre Hunter is listed as probable for the Hawks, while Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams are listed as questionable.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -7.5, total: 228.5
Pace: MIN (5th), MIL (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez all remain out for the Bucks, while Semi Ojeleye and Bobby Portis are probable.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
LAL -9, total: 220.5
Pace: LAL (2nd), OKC (29th)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable for the Lakers, while Kendrick Nunn, Trevor Ariza and Talen Horton-Tucker remain out.
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -8, total: 226.0
Pace: SAC (8th), PHO (T20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cameron Payne is out for the Suns.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -2.5, total: 234.0
Pace: MEM (17th), POR (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies
- Normal Powell is listed as questionable for the Blazers.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -8, total: 217.0
Pace: CLE (23rd), LAC (4th)
Situations to monitor:
- Marcus Morris is out for the Clippers, while Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka remain out as well.
- Isaac Okoro is doubtful to play for the Cavaliers.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
Ja Morant is currently posting the third-highest usage rate (33.6%) in the NBA among players seeing at least 10 minutes per game
The absence of Dillon Brooks, another high-usage player, certainly helps elevate this number, but Morant has been on a mission on the offensive end through his first three games. He’s averaging 35.0 points per game (!!) and is still posting a team-high 40.7% assist rate on top of the monstrous usage rate. While these rates are surely going to normalize, Morant’s recent form is impossible to ignore, especially in a favorable matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Steven Adams is posting his highest rebounding rate (22.9%) of his career through the first three games of the season
Adams has experienced a revitalization in Memphis through three games, posting a 22.9% rebounding rate, 16.0% usage rate (highest since 2019-20), 19.3% assist rate (career-high), and 30.7 minutes per game (highest mark since 2018-19). He’s adjusted nicely to being the roll-man for Ja Morant given his experience with another high-flying point guard from his Oklahoma City days and his DraftKings price ($5,300) has yet to catch up to his production.
In a matchup with a traditional center, Adams should be on the court for another 30-plus minutes in a spot where he remains underpriced, which will likely cause inflated ownership (for good reason).
Malcolm Brogdon is averaging a league-leading 105.0 touches per game through the Pacers’ first four games.
Brogdon was among the league leaders in touches last season (86.1 per game, eighth) but has only seen that number climb through the first week of play this season. He ranks fifth in time of possession per game (7.8 minutes), ahead of players like De’Aaron Fox, LeBron James and LaMelo Ball, and has been contributing in just about every statistical category. His price over $8,000 on FanDuel may feel daunting, but his production could warrant a price tag even higher. Consider Brogdon a reasonable value on this slate at the point guard position given his role with this Pacers’ team.
Speaking of time of possession per game, Cole Anthony (6.7 minutes) is averaging more time of possession per game than LaMelo Ball, Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard individually.
Anthony hasn’t shied away from producing, even with the presence of rookie Jalen Suggs, averaging 15.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in 32 minutes per game. His contribution on the glass has been one of the pleasant surprises this season and it’s helped make up for the fact that he’s only shooting 36.4% from the field. With 30-plus minutes almost a guarantee on a nightly basis and a salary that has yet to match his level of production, Anthony makes for a viable mid-tier play on this slate.
Ish Smith is averaging 51.0 touches per game and 4.5 minutes of possession per game for the Hornets this season.
Smith never seems to go away in NBA DFS and this season, it’s come at the expense of LaMelo Ball, who had insisted on keeping Smith in the game and foregoing his fourth-quarter rotation against the Nets to allow it. Smith has been more than a capable backup this season, averaging the second-most time of possession on the team, while seeing at least 21 minutes in three of the first four games and dropping below 20 DK points only once. His $4,000 price tag provides some much-needed salary relief against an Orlando team that the Hornets should run off the court, making him a stable value play to pair with your studs.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)
- Kevin Durant ($10,500)
- Paul George ($10,300)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100)
- James Harden ($10,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200)
- Kevin Durant ($11,000)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,900)
- Paul George ($10,500)
- Anthony Davis ($10,500)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- James Harden (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1.05x)
- Domantas Sabonis (1.05x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Tuesday’s five-game slate was another small slate where ownership was concentrated around one specific game, the Lakers vs. Spurs game. With the news in the hour before slate-lock that LeBron James was going to miss the game, Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis became overwhelmingly popular plays. On the other side of the ball, the Spurs players were all underpriced, leading Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl to carry significant ownership.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel, DraftKings, and SuperDraft. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $450k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Russell Westbrook (64.00)
SG: Jalen Brunson (35.50)
SF: Devin Vassell (37.25)
PF: Tobias Harris (48.25)
C: Jakob Poeltl (53.00)
G: Dejounte Murray (71.00)
F: Anthony Davis (70.75)
UTIL: Dwight Powell (19.00)
Total: 398.75
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Kemba Walker (38.1)
PG: Russell Westbrook (63.0)
SG: Dejounte Murray (67.9)
SG: Donovan Mitchell (31.4)
SF: Kenrich Williams (21.5)
SF: Eric Gordon (35.2)
PF: Anthony Davis (71.4)
PF: Aaron Gordon (31.9)
C: Jakob Poeltl (53.8)
Total: 414.2
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s Jump Shot ($5k to first) Tuesday night.
G: Luka Doncic (61.00)
G: Dejounte Murray (94.25)
G: Russell Westbrook (75.32)
F: Julius Randle (50.10)
F: Christian Wood (51.56)
F: Anthony Davis (77.44)
C: Jakob Poeltl (81.20)
Total: 490.87
The interesting part of Tuesday’s slate is that there are a number of completely different players if you compare the winning lineups on all three sites. This shows the discrepancies to take advantage of from a pricing standpoint, as Tobias Harris was only $7,400 on FanDuel, leading to inflated ownership and a productive game. On SuperDraft, we saw the ownership of Julius Randle approach 50% as his 1.2x multiplier is far from indicative of his production this season. The one constant across all three sites was Dejounte Murray, who triple-doubled for under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings while remaining present with a generous multiplier (1.3x) on SuperDraft, leading to heightened ownership. Once again, we see the winning lineups mix chalky plays with low-owned punts/studs to differentiate just enough from the field to get to the top.
