NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL is on to Week 2. Week 2 might not have the same excitement as Week 1, but there is still plenty of money to be won in DFS. There are still two Milly Maker contests on both DraftKings to go along with all the other tournaments, cash games, and satellites.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite options at each position.
Quarterback
Top Play
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions ($7,800)
Jackson is the third-most-expensive passer on the DraftKings’ main slate, but he possesses arguably the highest ceiling. His ability with his legs is absolutely legendary for a quarterback. He averaged over 80 rushing yards per game during his MVP season in 2019-20, and he’s on pace to top that mark this year. He’s averaged 96.5 rushing yards through his first two games, and he’s also scored two touchdowns.
Jackson should get to put his full skill set on display this week vs. the Lions. They have been absolutely shredded through the first two weeks of the year, allowing 41 points to the 49ers and 35 points to the Packers. The Ravens’ implied team total of 28.75 is the fourth-highest mark on the slate, and Jackson should be directly responsible for most of their scoring.
Other Options
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs ($6,500)
Herbert laid an egg last week vs. the Cowboys, but he’ll have a chance to redeem himself vs. the Chiefs. The total on this game currently sits at 55.5 points, so there is expected to be plenty of scoring. Herbert also did some of his best work last season vs. the Chiefs, averaging more than 31 DraftKings points per game:
Daniel Jones, New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,800)
Jones entered the season on the hot seat, but he has delivered through his first two games. He’s scored the fifth-most fantasy points at the position so far this season, thanks in part to his outstanding rushing production. Now, he gets to take on a Falcons defense that has been shredded by Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks. He’s the easy top choice if you’re paying down at the position.
Running Back
Top Play
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($4,800)
There is no denying the fact that CEH has been a disaster to start the year. He’s averaged just 3.3 yards per carry while providing virtually no receiving production out of the backfield. He also ceded the Chiefs’ lone goalline carry to Darrel Williams last week.
Still, this price tag feels like a drastic overreaction. CEH is still commanding the vast majority of the Chiefs’ RB opportunities through two weeks, racking up 27 carries compared to just four for Williams. The Ravens and Browns also have the potential to be strong against the run this season. His current matchup vs. the Chargers is much friendlier — they rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA — so this seems like the perfect opportunity to buy low on him.
Other Options
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings ($6,400)
Carson is another running back with a friendly matchup in Week 3. The Vikings were 30th in rush defense DVOA last season, and they allowed +5.56 DKFP above expectation to opposing rushers. Some of that stems from their dismal showing against Alvin Kamara — who gashed them for six touchdowns — but that was far from an isolated incident. Carson had two rushing touchdowns last week, and he has the backfield basically to himself after Rashad Penny went down with an injury. He can do some damage in this spot.
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,800)
Swift is operating in a timeshare with Jamaal Williams, but both players have provided value through the first two weeks. Williams is the preferred option around the goal line, but Swift is the better pass catcher. That skill could come in handy as large underdogs vs. the Ravens. He’s currently projected for the fifth-most points at the position in our NFL Optimizer, but he’s priced as just RB18.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800)
Kupp has been arguably the best receiver in football through the first two weeks. He’s seen at least 10 targets in both contests, and he’s responded with 16 catches for 271 yards and three touchdowns. If there were any concerns about his chemistry with Matthew Stafford, those are clearly gone now.
I fear for the well-being of Ross Cockrell in this matchup. He’s been forced into action following the injury to Sean Murphy-Bunting, and he ranks just 90th out of 102 qualified corners per ProFootballFocus. Cockrell has allowed a whopping 0.67 fantasy points per route run, so Kupp should have a field day against him.
Other Options
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants ($7,000)
Ridley’s production has been slightly disappointing to start the year, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities. He’s racked up 18 targets through the first two games, and PFF credits him with 34.8 expected DKFP during that stretch. That’s the 13th-most at the receiver position. I like his chances to bounce back vs. a mediocre Giants’ defense.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,900)
On the other side of that matchup, Shepard has emerged as the Giants’ clear No. 1 receiver. The team shelled out big bucks for Kenny Golladay in free agency and spent a first-round pick on Kadarius Toney, but Shepard easily leads the team in targets. He’s a logical stacking partner with Jones, and he has plenty of standalone value as well.
Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals ($4,900)
This game has a chance to be played at a lightning-fast pace. The Jaguars rank first in neutral pace this season, while the Cardinals rank third. If the Jags can manage to keep this one within striking distance, there should be plenty of points to go around. Jones leads all wide receivers in points-per-dollar projection in our NFL Optimizer, and he’s returned value in each of the first two weeks.
Tight End
Top Play
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,200)
This will likely be the last week where we can take advantage of Hockenson at this price tag. He played on Monday Night Football this week, so DraftKings didn’t have time to adjust his price tag. He’s been heavily involved in the Lions’ passing attack to start the year, and he’s responded with an average of eight catches, 81.5 receiving yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game. Hockenson is basically the only viable pass catcher in Detroit, and he also has plenty of talent as the No. 9 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Other Options
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants ($4,900)
Speaking of guys with plenty of talent, Pitts racked up five catches for 73 yards last week vs. the Buccaneers. He’s averaged seven targets per game, and his role should only increase as the season progresses. Overall, he ranks seventh at the position in expected fantasy points. The blowup week is eventually coming.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,000)
Higbee is coming off a one-catch performance last week, but he played on 100% of the snaps for the second consecutive game. He’s also run plenty of routes, so he’s a nice value option at just $4,000.
