Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It is time.
The 2024 NFL Draft is officially here. The time for speculation and debate has ended. The picks will start coming at 8 p.m. ET Thursday from Detroit. This season brings even more uncertainty, as there are as many as six quarterbacks that could be drafted in the first round, including at the first overall pick. After analyzing information from beat reporters, coach interviews, and reviewing a myriad of mock drafts, here is my final projection of Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
2024 Final NFL Mock Draft 4.0 — First Round
1. Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Previous Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Easy. It is a fait accompli that Williams joins the Bears as their franchise quarterback. He his now -20000 to be the first pick per DraftKings.
2. Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Previous Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The conviction with Daniels to Washington started to build from insiders with supportive comments from Ben Standig’s interviews and has reached the heights of certainty with Peter Schrager’s latest comments.
3. New England Patriots — Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Previous Pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
If Daniels goes second, the Patriots start to feel the pressure. They need a franchise quarterback with this pick, as owner Robert Kraft will certainly never expect to be picking third overall again in the near future. When debating between the safety of Maye and the risk/reward of McCarthy, Kraft makes his team play it safe.
4. Arizona Cardinals — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Previous Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Logical landing spot for the best non-quarterback available in this draft. Superb route-runner, blocker, and contested-catch receiver. They could definitely trade this pick for a team desperate to draft McCarthy, but since everyone seems to be projecting a trade, I project the Cardinals to stay put at take Harrison at No. 4.
5. Los Angeles Chargers — Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Previous Pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I am sticking with an offensive lineman (over a wide receiver) for the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh prioritizes protecting his quarterback while featuring a strong running game. Alt is 6-foot-8, 315 pounds, and could easily move to right tackle serving as a bookend to left tackle Rashawn Slater. If they don’t trade this pick, I firmly believe Alt is the selection.
6. New York Giants — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Previous Pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I am starting to think the interest in a quarterback has been for two reasons: if Drake Maye drops to No. 6 and to entice someone to trade up. With just J.J. McCarthy on the board, I think the Giants stay put and grab the explosive wideout from LSU.
7. Tennessee Titans — JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Previous Pick: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Everything points to Tennessee selecting an offensive lineman here. The Titans have a young franchise quarterback in Will Levis and will feature a new rushing attack with Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. Latham has gained a ton of late momentum and is not -250 to be selected before pick 13.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Previous Pick: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
New head coach Raheem Morris stays true to his defensive coordinator pedigree with Atlanta’s first overall pick. Dallas Turner was the overwhelming favorite, and now Latu has the same odds (+165) as Turner. It has been an incredible comeback for Latu after the Washington medical staff considered him “retired.” Those medical concerns have been cleared by Atlanta.
9. Chicago Bears — Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Previous Pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Bears do not have a pressing need for a wide receiver with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen on the roster. Once Dallas Turner falls, Chicago grabs the elite pass rusher from Alabama.
10. New York Jets — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Previous Pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Jets have tethered their immediate success to a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, and the opportunity to add an elite wide receiver is simply too much. I had previously mocked an offensive tackle to the Jets but they now land Odunze when he surprisingly falls to No. 10.
11. Minnesota Vikings — J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Previous Pick: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Maybe Minnesota doesn’t need to trade up? I don’t think McCarthy has the same buzz outside the first three picks. After trading for Zach Wilson, would Denver move up one spot? Would the Raiders trade when they have a great shot at Michael Penix Jr.? Vikings land their ideal franchise quarterback without paying a premium.
12. Denver Broncos — Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Previous Pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
I don’t see Sean Payton using his first-round pick on a quarterback after the Zach Wilson trade. Denver grabs a pass rusher to help build back the Broncos defense.
13. Las Vegas Raiders — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Previous Pick: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
I loved this pick in my last mock, and I love it even more now. The Raiders need a quarterback, especially in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Can the Raiders really pass on a great deep ball thrower that led Washington to the National Championship game?
14. New Orleans Saints — Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Previous Pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Saints still have a serviceable quarterback in 32-year-old Derek Carr, but they need to fortify the offensive line. Latham’s late rise lead to Fashanu falling in their lap at No. 14.
15. Indianapolis Colts — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Previous Pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
This is a much more realistic spot for Bowers. The Colts have a franchise quarterback, a solid offensive line and an elite running back. They add an elite athlete at the tight end position to give Anthony Richardson another explosive offensive weapon.
16. Seattle Seahawks — Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Previous Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The temptation is there for new head coach Mike Macdonald to use his first draft pick on defense, but the Seahawks need to solidify the interior of their offensive line. Seattle will need to establish a strong ground game similar to Baltimore’s success with Macdonald now on staff. They stay regional with the 6-foot-6, 334-pound Oregon State tackle.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Previous Pick: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Arnold is the most talented CB in this draft, and fits the biggest need for Jacksonville.
18. Cincinnati Bengals — Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
Previous Pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The overwhelming position for the Cincinnati pick is now the offensive line (-130). The Bengals met with Powers-Johnson, and the 6-foot-3, 328-pound interior lineman would fortify the offensive line for quarterback Joe Burrow.
19. Los Angeles Rams — Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Previous Pick: Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
The Rams have a first-round draft pick for the first time since 2017, and I’m saying they select Fautanu after a very impressive Draft Combine.. This supports Peter Schrager’s “guarantee” for the Rams pick as well.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers — Tyler Guyton, OL, Oklahoma
Previous Pick: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Steelers continue to make all the right moves, fortifying their offensive line in the rugged AFC North. Daniel Jeremiah also likes Guyton to Pittsburgh.
21. Miami Dolphins — Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
Previous Pick: Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
Miami needs defensive help and takes advantage when the elite interior defensive lineman falls to them at No. 21.
22. Philadelphia Eagles — Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Previous Pick: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean can play both cornerback or safety and is also an accomplished punt returner. The Eagles secondary struggled all season, and Philadelphia drafted DT, LB and OL with the first three picks last season.
23. Minnesota Vikings — Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
Previous Pick: Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
J.J. McCarthy and Jer’Zhan Newton would be quite a hall for the Vikings, balancing offense and defense needs.
24. Dallas Cowboys — Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Previous Pick: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The textbook Dallas pick is offensive line. Barton played both tackle and center at Duke, fortifying a huge need for the Cowboys.
25. Green Bay Packers — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Previous Pick: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota
I still love Tyler Nubin to Green Bay, but they can easily pick him in Round 2. Packers strengthen their secondary with the super-athletic Mitchell.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Previous Pick: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu’s meteoric late rise make the Buccaneers pivot to the Penn State pass rusher.
27. Arizona Cardinals — Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Previous Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Arizona needs defensive help everywhere, and at 6-foot-7, 340 pounds, Mims profiles very close to his former teammate Broderick Jones, who went 14th to Pittsburgh in last year’s draft.
28. Buffalo Bills — Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Previous Pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Buffalo is -280 to select a wide receiver, and Thomas put on a show at the combine and LSU’s pro day.
29. Detroit Lions — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Previous Pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Lions take the elite Alabama cornerback McKinstry with their first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Detroit is favored (+130) to take a cornerback in Round 1.
30. Baltimore Ravens — Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Previous Pick: Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
The Ravens would be very tempted to take McKinstry if he’s there, but I think he goes to Detroit. The Ravens strengthen their offensive line after losing Moses Morgan to the Jets.
31. San Francisco 49ers — Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Previous Pick: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
With a “safe” quarterback in Brock Purdy, San Francisco needs to continue to stockpile offensive weapons. McConkey is fantastic insurance with the Brandon Aiyuk uncertainty.
32. Kansas City Chiefs — Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Previous Pick: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
The smoke about Kansas City taking Suamataia has lessened with the Rashee Rice incident, but I still believe this is a huge target for the Chiefs. The odds on an OL to Kansas City has dropped back down to -120. This would be the 11th offensive lineman drafted in Round 1.
