Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2024 NFL Draft is just one day away, giving all 32 teams the opportunity to make the necessary improvements to their roster. There are a handful of teams who have pretty glaring holes to fill that will not only impact their football club, but also the fantasy football landscape.
Let’s take a look at some of the most incomplete position groups (fantasy positions only) around the league and how those teams can address them.
Dallas Cowboys: Running Back
Perhaps the most mouth-watering landing spot for any rookie running back is Dallas. After moving on from Tony Pollard this offseason, the Cowboys are looking at Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman at the top of their depth chart. Yikes. Pollard was seventh in the league in carries last year (252) and 11th in targets (67). His 72 red zone touches were the second most in football, and he recorded 13 carries inside the 5-yard line. 55% of Dallas’ total rush attempts went to Pollard (ninth), and his 71% snap share ranked fourth among running backs.
Whether it is the second, third or fourth round, the Cowboys will be selecting a running back this weekend. Jonathan Brooks, who doesn’t turn 21 until July, could fill that role that Pollard left behind, especially with his combination of size and receiving ability. He is coming off a torn ACL, but he’d easily be the most talented player in this backfield and would likely take over the lead role by midseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Wide Receiver
There have been rumors that the Cardinals are willing to trade out of the fourth overall selection, but if they don’t, Marvin Harrison Jr. will most likely be the selection. And it obviously makes sense, as 30% of Arizona’s targets from a season ago need to be replaced. Right now, the Cardinals are looking at Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Zach Pascal atop their wide receiver depth chart. Whoever Arizona adds could be looking at a massive workload right out of the gate. Back in 2020, DeAndre Hopkins posted a 29.4% target share, averaging 10 targets per game. And with Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the 2022 campaign, Marquise Brown operated as Arizona’s WR1. During that span, Hollywood averaged 10.7 targets and 7.2 receptions per game, while sporting a 26% target share and 23% target per route run rate.
Los Angeles Chargers: Wide Receiver
58%. That is the percentage of targets from last year that need to be replaced by the Chargers. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett are all gone, which means Justin Herbert is looking for a new top target. While it sounds like new head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to model his offense off a 1960s scheme, the Chargers are absolutely going to have to address the wide receiver position. Fortunately, this is the year to do so. The wide receiver class is incredibly deep so even if they don’t draft one of the top-three wideouts with the sixth overall selection, there are plenty of opportunities later on.
Minnesota Vikings: Quarterback
Of course, Chicago, Washington and New England headline the list of QB-needy teams, but they also have the first three picks, so naming them in this space is just to fill time. We know at least two and maybe all three of them will end up with a quarterback. So let’s look beyond those three.
Perhaps the talking point of the NFL Draft is what Minnesota’s plan is. We know as an almost certainty that they will be taking a quarterback, but after acquiring the 23rd overall selection a few months ago, the Vikings now have the ammo to package 11 and 23 (with more?) to maybe move up into the top five and select almost whoever they want. In case you missed it, Kirk Cousins, who averaged 4,186 passing yards and 30.6 passing touchdowns in five fully healthy seasons, is no longer in Minnesota. Cousins missed half of the year in 2023, forcing the Vikings to turn to Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. With Kevin O’Connell calling plays and Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson catching passes, this is an ideal landing spot for fantasy. Dobbs posted three top-15 fantasy finishes once he was traded to the Vikings, and Mullens finished as a top-12 signal caller three times. He also eclipsed 300 passing yards three times.
Buffalo Bills: Wide Receiver
Does Brandon Beane have a plan to trade up for a wide receiver? And if so, how far is he willing to move? The departure of Stefon Diggs likely has wide receiver atop Buffalo’s draft board this year. During his four seasons in Buffalo, Diggs averaged over 161 targets per season, while only Davante Adams has more total targets during that span. On top of that, the Bills also lost Gabe Davis, leaving them without a true, full-time perimeter wideout that can make plays deep down the field. That seems pretty important when your quarterback is Josh Allen. During a recent press conference, Beane stated how the Bills don’t necessarily need a true WR1, though I personally believe that is an attempt at a smokescreen.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Wide Receiver
With Diontae Johnson traded to Carolina, the Steelers are left with George Pickens and not much else at wide receiver. Johnson averaged nearly nine targets per game over his final four seasons in Pittsburgh and consistently created separation. The Steelers have the 20th overall selection, where they could certainly draft a wide receiver. But Pittsburgh really needs a wide receiver to operate from the slot and quickly win on the short/intermediate routes. They have been talking to former Cincinnati slot receiver Tyler Boyd — if they don’t select a wideout at 20th overall, I’d guess they look at a slot receiver in the later rounds.
