Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Right now, on Underdog Fantasy, the Best Ball Mania ll tournament is live. This massive contest features a first-place prize of $1,000,001. Yes, a million dollars.
The tournament can max out at 155,520 entrants, with 25,920 places paid out. Best Ball Mania ll scoring is 0.5 PPR with weekly starting lineup requirements of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex play. Each draft is 18 rounds, thus leaving you with 10 bench players.
Obviously, with such a large field of entrants, if you want first place (which is what we’re aiming for here), you’re going to have to not only get lucky by avoiding injuries but also have some unique wrinkles to your team. Let’s discuss some high-level takeaways and edges I’m currently attacking in these drafts daily.
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Roster Construction
Looking back at win rate data the constructions I’m currently attacking feature drafting:
- Quarterback: 2-3
- Running backs: 4-6
- Wide receivers: 7-10
- Tight ends: 2-3
Quarterbacks: Preferably I’m grabbing my first quarterback inside the first 80 picks in any draft, and I’m targeting one with rushing upside and top five positional potential. Outside of paying up for Patrick Mahomes, the players who fit this description that I’ll have the most exposure to are Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts.
When mining second or third quarterback options, I’m targeting players inside of offenses that either project to be top 5-7 in neutral script passing rate, have rushing abilities, or are on teams that could surprise after offseasons with major personnel added to the offense. Some of the quarterbacks making my shortlist here are Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields and a late combo of Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill.
Running backs: Running back offers a variety of ways of drafting the position. Whether you're a Zero RB zealot, hyper fragile (four running backs drafted early and then discarding the position), or drafting two runners early and then filling in the back of your roster with late dart throws, there's merit in utilizing all of these in your best ball portfolio.
With running back, especially if you're drafting one in each of the top two rounds, be mindful of bye weeks. If you're paying up at the position, your top two runners will form the backbone of that position if they remain healthy all season, especially noting that bye week 7 is a monster with notable fantasy superstars like Ezekiel Elliot, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, and talented rookies Travis Etienne and Najee Harris all sharing this week off.
Wide receivers: With stacking being something I utilize heavily in these large-field tournaments, the receivers I grab early will play a part in the quarterbacks I select later if they fall to me. The sweet spot for high-volume wide receivers right now is the third round. Some of the wideouts with massive market shares and number one positional upside going in this round are Micheal Thomas, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper.
Once the draft rolls past these rounds, the name of the game is volume and upside. Which second-year wide receivers or rookies could break out? Are there wide receivers on basement-level teams who can finish the year with 100+ targets? Double stacking quarterbacks with high passing rates versus single stacking mobile quarterbacks are strategies I will deploy depending on how the draft is unfolding. Some players that check the boxes here are Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, DeVonta Smith and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Tight ends: The name of the game here is still pay up or punt the position. The pay-up options are obvious, with Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle making the list. If you’re avoiding the Kyle Pitts hype train (I am) or the middle round upside plays (T.J. Hockenson), I get it. Hockenson is the one name in those middle rounds who I find intriguing, as he could garner 120+ targets this season, and I won’t be surprised. If you are punting tight end until the later rounds of drafts, you should draft two at the least and more likely three. Also, correlating these late selections into your stack or quarterbacks is preferred. If you draft Amari Cooper and Dak Prescott early, don’t forget Blake Jarwin or Dalton Schultz late.
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Best Ball Mania specific strategies
WR3 double stacks
What we're aiming for in best ball is ceiling weeks and volume. If you're unable to grab your quarterbacks' main squeeze at wide receiver early, pairing or “double stacking” the possible WR3 options in the offense are viable as well. The thinking here is if we're able to milk 5-6 ceiling weeks correlated to our quarterback, then we have a best ball week winning formula. A late double stack that I love that perfectly illustrates the aim here is Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk (WR71, overall 165.8) and Rondale Moore (WR64, overall 144.5). Arizona will be top five in pace. Without a clear number two target and heavy four-wide set usage, both of these receivers could easily stack multiple monster games.
Get weird late in drafts
With a field this size, you’re going to have to be different if you hope to beat 155,000+ people. So who are players who could walk into a massive volume drafted late or going undrafted if injuries strike (or we’re reading the situation poorly)? If you make it to that final million-dollar table, who is a player you have on your squad that the other 11 teams don’t. Some players who could smash this year if injuries hit or we’re simply reading the depth chart wrong are Ty Johnson, Qadree Ollison and Josh Palmer.
