Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jayden Reed from EV Insight

Jayden ReedReceiving Yards

Right now, Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
In this week’s contest, Jayden Reed is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.6 targets.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 126.5 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.9 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wideouts this year, conceding 7.82 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards