NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- Justin Fields has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (200.0) this season than he did last season (149.0).
- This year, the weak Green Bay Packers defense has allowed a massive 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-largest rate in the league.
- This year, the feeble Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a whopping 8.08 yards.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to pass on 52.1% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- This week, Justin Fields is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.6.
- Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
- In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
200
Passing Yards
200
Passing Yards
