NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 243.5 (-104) after it opened @ 245.5 (-117).
Pros
- Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
- Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 35.4 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
- Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading passers in football this year, averaging an exceptional 255.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league against the Dolphins defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
- The Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami’s collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
