NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-139/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+108) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast James Cook to accumulate 14.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- After making up 19.1% of his team’s run game usage last season, James Cook has been more involved in the ground game this season, currently taking on 50.2%.
- James Cook’s 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season marks an impressive gain in his rushing skills over last season’s 32.0 mark.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least run-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.6% run rate.
- The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.
- James Cook’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 4.78 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.79 rate last season.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 97.0 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
