NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
- The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 10.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- With a remarkable 29.9% Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
- Stefon Diggs has totaled a staggering 105.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among wideouts.
- This year, the anemic Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
- Stefon Diggs has put up significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
- Stefon Diggs’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 72.7% to 65.9%.
- Stefon Diggs’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling a measly 7.60 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.62 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
