Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Beathard from EV Insight

C.J. BeathardPassing Yards

Right now, C.J. Beathard’s passing yards prop is set at 214.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 214.5 (-110) after it opened @ 224.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB C.J. Beathard in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
With a 65.5% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.82 seconds per snap.
C.J. Beathard profiles as one of the most on-target passers in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 75.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 97th percentile.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina’s unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

Cons

The Jaguars are a giant 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
C.J. Beathard has attempted a mere 6.0 throws per game this year, grading out in the 18th percentile when it comes to QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
With a very bad record of 36.0 adjusted passing yards per game (15th percentile), C.J. Beathard rates as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year.
C.J. Beathard rates as one of the worst per-play passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 5.40 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
217
Passing Yards