Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kylen Granson from EV Insight

Kylen GransonReceiving Yards

Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (-120) after it opened @ 15.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a massive 60.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
After accruing 18.0 air yards per game last year, Kylen Granson has undergone big improvement this year, now averaging 25.0 per game.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
Kylen Granson’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 77.7% to 65.8%.
This year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards