Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Trey McBride from EV Insight

Trey McBrideReceiving Yards

Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-129) after it opened @ 56.5 (-119).

Pros

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Trey McBride to earn 9.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The predictive model expects Trey McBride to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this week (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.7% in games he has played).
Trey McBride has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).

Cons

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projections to run only 63.3 total plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards