NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.
- Zay Flowers has run a route on 93.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- The projections expect Zay Flowers to accrue 7.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
- Zay Flowers comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in a remarkable 75.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.55 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a mere 3.5 YAC.
- The San Francisco cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
