NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-120/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
- In this week’s contest, George Kittle is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets.
- After accumulating 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has been rising this season, now sitting at 53.0 per game.
- George Kittle’s 48.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 42.2.
- George Kittle’s 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a substantial progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 49.0 rate.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The projections expect the 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
- The 49ers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
