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Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

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Matthew Stafford

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Rams vs. Saints

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 254.5 (-115) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • The model projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • Matthew Stafford’s 252.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a significant improvement in his passing ability over last year’s 220.0 mark.
Cons

  • This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4.5 points.
  • Matthew Stafford’s 61.3% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive decline in his passing accuracy over last year’s 65.3% mark.
  • This year, the stout Saints defense has allowed a paltry 62.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.77 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in football.
  • The New Orleans cornerbacks rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards

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