Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-110) after it opened @ 243.5 (-110).

Pros

The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
Jared Goff has attempted 37.8 passes per game this year, grading out in the 89th percentile when it comes to QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Detroit Lions profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Jared Goff ranks as one of the best QBs in football this year, averaging an impressive 272.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
The model projects the Lions as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards