Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projections to run 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- This week, Kyle Pitts is expected by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has seen a big decrease this season, currently boasting 61.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 46.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling just 2.51 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 rate last season.
- The Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.8%) vs. tight ends this year (69.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
