NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-107/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-122) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the present time, the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (41.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Patriots.
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
- Our trusted projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to total 18.6 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- The model projects Ezekiel Elliott to be much less involved in his team’s running game in this week’s game (18.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.7% in games he has played).
Cons
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
- Ezekiel Elliott has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (34.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
- With a very bad rate of 3.63 adjusted yards per carry (20th percentile) this year, Ezekiel Elliott has been as one of the bottom pure rushers in the NFL at the position.
- Ezekiel Elliott is positioned as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.54 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh’s DT corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
