Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tanner Hudson from EV Insight

Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
The projections expect Tanner Hudson to accumulate 4.1 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

The model projects the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
In regards to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league this year.
Tanner Hudson is positioned as one of the worst TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
This year, the fierce Jaguars defense has conceded a meager 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards