Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive strategy to lean 12.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
This year, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded a colossal 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-highest rate in football.

Cons

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
Terry McLaurin’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.4% to 62.4%.
Terry McLaurin’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling just 7.68 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 rate last year.
Terry McLaurin’s 3.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows an impressive drop-off in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 5.8% rate.
The Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards