Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyler MurrayPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-113).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In averaging a colossal 36.5 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Kyler Murray slots in among the top quarterbacks in football (78th percentile) in this statistic.
- The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in football (just 217.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Rams defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
