Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray from EV Insight

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-113).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In averaging a colossal 36.5 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Kyler Murray slots in among the top quarterbacks in football (78th percentile) in this statistic.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in football (just 217.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Rams defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards