Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-105) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to skew 13.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Logan Thomas has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.34 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
