Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-148/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (+112) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
- In this week’s game, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to land in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.4 targets.
Cons
- The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).
- Opposing offenses have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 10.6% Target Share this year reflects a significant diminishment in his air attack utilization over last year’s 18.9% rate.
- After accumulating 50.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has been a disappointment this season, currently pacing 22.0 per game.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 15.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a substantial decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 49.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
