Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-105/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 20.5 (-105).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Noah Fant grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a terrific 78.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.
Noah Fant’s 10.3 adjusted yards per target this year signifies an impressive gain in his receiving ability over last year’s 7.6 mark.
This year, the anemic Los Angeles Rams defense has been gouged for a staggering 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Cons

After accruing 25.0 air yards per game last year, Noah Fant has produced significantly fewer this year, currently sitting at 16.0 per game.
Noah Fant’s 15.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 24.6.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards