Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-105/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 20.5 (-105).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
- Noah Fant grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a terrific 78.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.
- Noah Fant’s 10.3 adjusted yards per target this year signifies an impressive gain in his receiving ability over last year’s 7.6 mark.
- This year, the anemic Los Angeles Rams defense has been gouged for a staggering 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- After accruing 25.0 air yards per game last year, Noah Fant has produced significantly fewer this year, currently sitting at 16.0 per game.
- Noah Fant’s 15.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 24.6.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
