Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).

Pros

With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 19.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey’s 90.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a noteworthy gain in his rushing prowess over last year’s 68.0 figure.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
This year, the formidable Buccaneers run defense has allowed a feeble 92.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards