Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Marquise Brown from EV Insight

Marquise BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-118).

Pros

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 94.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs.
The leading projections forecast Marquise Brown to total 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
After totaling 100.0 air yards per game last season, Marquise Brown has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 92.0 per game.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Marquise Brown’s 48.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a substantial regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 60.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards