Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-118).
Pros
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
- The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- Marquise Brown has run a route on 94.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- The leading projections forecast Marquise Brown to total 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
- After totaling 100.0 air yards per game last season, Marquise Brown has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 92.0 per game.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Marquise Brown’s 48.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a substantial regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 60.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
