Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Vikings vs. Saints
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Alexander Mattison is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.3 carries.
- Alexander Mattison has been a more important option in his offense’s ground game this season (63.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (17.8%).
- Alexander Mattison’s 48.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a substantial growth in his rushing skills over last season’s 16.0 figure.
- This year, the daunting Saints run defense has yielded a paltry 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s ground game: the 25th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 36.9% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Alexander Mattison’s running efficiency (3.51 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (19th percentile among running backs).
- Alexander Mattison has been one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.43 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
